Abstract
Predicting the locations of future surface coal mining in Appalachia is challenging for a number of reasons. Economic and regulatory factors impact the coal mining industry and forecasts of future coal production do not specifically predict changes in location of future coal production. With the potential environmental impacts from surface coal mining, prediction of the location of future activity would be valuable to decision makers. The goal of this study was to provide a method for predicting future surface coal mining extents under changing economic and regulatory forecasts through the year 2035. This was accomplished by integrating a spatial model with production demand forecasts to predict (1 km2) gridded cell size land cover change. Combining these two inputs was possible with a ratio which linked coal extraction quantities to a unit area extent. The result was a spatial distribution of probabilities allocated over forecasted demand for the Appalachian region including northern, central, southern, and eastern Illinois coal regions. The results can be used to better plan for land use alterations and potential cumulative impacts.
Highlights
The Appalachian region of the eastern United States is an important source of fossil fuel to meet energy needs
This study provides a method for predicting future surface coal mining extents by integrating a spatial model with production demand forecasts to better represent land cover change
All variables were represented as raster data models with a cell size of 1 km2 using ESRI ArcGIS 10.1 software [23], with analysis extent limited to the coal geology extent within the Appalachian Landscape Conservation Cooperative (LCC) [24]
Summary
The Appalachian region of the eastern United States is an important source of fossil fuel to meet energy needs. Surface production of coal accounts for two thirds of total production, while underground mining contributes about one third of total production [1]. Regional coal resources include steam coal used in electric power generation, and (to a lesser extent) metallurgical coal used in industrial processes. The overall future of Appalachian coal resource extraction is increasingly uncertain. There is a complex, dynamic relationship between the price of coal, the price of competing resources (in particular natural gas), and potential greenhouse gas emission reduction policies which reduce.
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