Abstract
ABSTRACTThe fluctuation of freight rates revenue and the fierce volatility of oil cost are two of the most key risk exposures in the shipping industry. However, neglecting the dynamic interrelationship between the cost and the revenue markets leads to the overestimation or underestimation of hedging ratios, which makes the present single hedge strategy less efficient. This paper proposes an optimal combination hedging model for a shipowner trading the derivatives of crude oil and dry bulk freight rates simultaneously with the cross-market economic linkages. We investigate the impacts of spillover transmission, structural breaks, and dynamic conditional correlations (DCCs) on the optimal combination hedging trading. It is found that the significant volatility transmission between oil future and dry bulk forward freight agreements suggests a high dependence of the Capesize sector on the oil fluctuations, which means that the dynamic cross-market interactions have significant impacts on the aggregate risk exposures. Furthermore, the DCCs incorporating structural breaks significantly improve the performance of the combination hedge, which is superior to the two separate hedging strategies. Our study offers new insights into how the freight rates and oil markets relate to a combination hedging, which can be used to promote the risk management in the market.
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