Coastal Restoration Agreements Under Climate Change: Barriers and Enablers

This annual report summarizes previously unreported data collected to fulfill the contractual obligations for BPA project No.1990-044-00, 'Coeur d'Alene Subbasin Fisheries Habitat Enhancement', during the 2006 calendar year. Even though the contract performance period for this project crosses fiscal and calendar years, the timing of data collection and analysis, as well as implementation of restoration projects, lends itself to this reporting schedule. The 2006 performance period marked the first year that BPA implemented its Process Improvement Initiative with the Pisces system serving as the vehicle for developing statements of work and tracking project performance. This document attempts to provide some consistency between the project objectives, around which past reports have been structured, and the new work element format adopted for use in Pisces. The report is formatted into three primary sections that respectively provide results and discussion of: (1) monitoring and evaluation of biological and physical habitat indicators; (2) implementation of restoration and enhancement projects; and (3) education and outreach work performed during 2006. The relevant work elements and/or milestones found in the statement of work are listed under these section headings and described in the body of the report.

Coastal habitats can play an important role in climate change mitigation. As Louisiana implements its climate action plan and the restoration and risk reduction projects outlined in its 2017 Louisiana Coastal Master Plan, it is critical to consider potential greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes in coastal habitats. This study estimated the potential climate mitigation role of existing, converted, and restored coastal habitats for years 2005, 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2050, which align with the Governor of Louisiana's GHG reduction targets. An analytical framework was developed that considered 1) available scientific data on net ecosystem carbon balance fluxes per habitat and 2) habitat areas projected from modeling efforts used for the 2017 Louisiana Coastal Master Plan to estimate the net GHG flux of coastal area. The coastal area was estimated as net GHG sinks of -38.4 ± 10.6 and - 43.2 ± 12.0 Tg CO2 equivalents (CO2 e) in 2005 and 2020, respectively. The coastal area was projected to remain a net GHG sink in 2025 and 2030, both with and without implementation of Coastal Master Plan projects (means ranged from -25.3 to -34.2 Tg CO2 e). By 2050, with model-projected wetland loss and conversion of coastal habitats to open water due to coastal erosion and relative sea level rise, Louisiana's coastal area was projected to become a net source of greenhouse gas emissions both with and without the Coastal Master Plan projects. However, at year 2050, Louisiana Coastal Master Plan project implementation was projected to avoid the release of +8.8 ± 1.3 Tg CO2 e compared to an alternative with no action. Reduction in current and future stressors to coastal habitats, including impacts from sea level rise, as well as the implementation of restoration projects could help to ensure coastal areas remain a natural climate solution.

Climate Change, Sea Level Rise, and Adaptation: A Case Study of Bangladesh

Roads to Nowhere in Four States: State and Local Governments in the Atlantic Southeast Facing Sea-Level Rise

Operationalizing marketable blue carbon

Introduction..- Climatic Changes..- Man's impact on atmosphere and climate: a global threat? Strategies to combat global warming..- Ecological interpretation of climate projections..- Western European regional climate scenarios in a high greenhouse gas world and agricultural impacts..- Elevated Carbon-Dioxide Concentrations..- The primary productivity of Puccinellia maritima and Spartina anglica: a simple predictive model of response to climatic change..- Direct effects of elevated CO2 concentration levels on grass and clover in 'model-ecosystems'..- Effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide enrichment on salt-marsh plants..- Temperature Changes..- The geographic distribution of seaweed species in relation to temperature: present and past..- Expected effects of changing seawater temperatures on the geographic distribution of seaweed species..- Expected biological effects of long-term changes in temperatures on benthic ecosystems in coastal waters around The Netherlands..- Expected effects of changes in winter temperatures on benthic animals living in soft sediments in coastal North Sea areas..- Effects of temperature changes on infaunal circalittoral bivalves, particularly T. tenuis and T. fabula..- Expected efffects of temperature changes on estuarine fish populations..- Sea-Level Rises..- Sea-level changes and tidal-flat characteristics..- Long-term beach and shoreface changes, NW Jutland, Denmark: effects of a change in wind direction..- Climate change, sea level rise and morphological developments in the Dutch Wadden Sea, a marine wetland..- Sea-level rise and coastal sedimentation in central Noord-Holland (The Netherlands) around 5000 BP: a case study of changes in sedimentation dynamics and sediment distribution patterns..- Ecological impact of sea level rise on coastal ecosystems of Mont-Saint-Michel Bay (France)..- Consequences of sea level rise: implications from the Mississippi Delta..- Possible effects of sea level changes on salt-marsh vegetation..- Salt marshes in The Netherlands Wadden Sea: rising high-tide levels and accreation enhancement..- Inshore birds of the soft coasts and sea-level rise..- UV-B Radiation..- Effects of increased solar UV-B radiation on coastal marine ecosystems: an overview..- Expected changes in Dutch coastal vegetation resulting from enhanced levels of solar UV-B..

Chapter 5: Law and regulation

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 5: Mapping Climate Risk

Aim of the Study: Significant risks to coastal ecosystems and biodiversity are posed by sea level rise which impact coastal erosion, and floods to cause hazards, which will have a substantial impact on human livelihoods. This study investigates the perceptions of the indigenous people and their views on the subject matter. Methodology: The methodology of the research was descriptive statistics like simple percentage and graphs for analysis. The research developed a questionnaire containing 6 questions. The target populations are the Coastal communities in the Niger Delta and Lagos. Sample size of the study was 450 respondents. Findings: The results of this study have important consequences for the livelihoods of people who depend on these ecosystems, since they emphasize the disastrous impact of coastal erosion, flooding, and sea level rise on habitats, species extinction, and food chains in the marine environment. Current adaptation and mitigation measures have limitations and unintended consequences, and funding and community engagement are often insufficient. To address these challenges, researcher recommend integrated coastal zone management and planning, ecosystem-based adaptation, and community-led adaptation, as well as innovative financing mechanisms and funding models. Conclusion: Early warning systems and flood-risk communication can help reduce the impacts of flooding, while relocation and retreat strategies for high-risk areas and climate-resilient urban design are also necessary. Research and development of new technologies and solutions, such as sea-level rise modeling and coastal restoration are vital, and addressing the root causes of climate change through mitigation efforts is critical. International cooperation and agreements, such as the Paris Agreement, are essential for global action on climate change. Finally, recognizing the cultural and spiritual significance of coastal ecosystems for indigenous communities and incorporating their knowledge and perspectives in adaptation and mitigation efforts is crucial.

Twenty-first century sea-level rise could exceed IPCC projections for strong-warming futures

Since the first Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, the scientific community has agreed that sea-level rise (SLR) is the most important threat to coastal zones. Due to ocean thermal expansion and the loss of land-based ice because of increased melting, the sea level has risen at a rate of about 1.7 mm/year (Bindoff et al. 2007). The projected rise from 1990 to 2100 is 9–88 cm with a mid estimate from 48 cm (Nicholls and Lowe 2004, p. 229). Even though there are always uncertainties about this phenomenon, SLR could completely annihilate some coastal zones, especially in the small islands and the low coasts (McLean et al. 2001). In Morocco, in the eastern part of the Mediterranean coast, “scenarios for future sea-level rise range from 200 to 860 mm, with a “best estimate” of 490 mm” (Snoussi et al. 2008, p. 206). The impact of the SLR will induce the loss of 24–59 % of this coastal zone and will have severe impacts on residential and recreational activities, agriculture and natural ecosystems. Those aspects are not well documented in Morocco and economic analysis is still needed in order to evaluate how SLR is affecting coastal ecosystem services (see the following). The issue is that a great number of persons are living in coastal zones which are also vulnerable ecosystems (wetlands, coral reef). This phenomenon is not specific to Morocco: “Humanity is preferentially concentrated in the coastal zones of the world. At least 200 million people were estimated to live in the coastal flood plain (below the 1 in 1000 yr storm surge) in 1990. This is likely to increase to at least 600 million people by 2100 (6 % of global population) as coastal populations are presently growing at twice the rate of global population increase (WCC’93 1994)” (Nicholls and Mimura 1998). Consequently, the SLR is the most analysed climate change impact on coastal zone by the scientific community. However, even the IPCC recognizes that SLR is not the major problem facing the coastal zone. For IPCC, this zone is, indeed, submitted to several kinds of risks (Fig. 1). In its last report, the IPCC announced: “the issue of sea-level rise still dominates the literature on coastal areas and climate change” (IPCC, Nicholls et al. 2007, Climatic Change (2013) 120:713–725 DOI 10.1007/s10584-013-0860-y

Climate change phenomenon brought major uncertainty and stresses to environmental resources. In particular, the coastal ecosystems are customarily considered one of the most complex systems to sustain, experiencing continuous fluctuation and changes by nature, and climate change will only add to this complexity. That fact underscores the necessity of finding effective adaptive methodology governing the coastal system vulnerability while facing climate change impact. This paper argues that sustainability of coastal zones must employ an adaptive policy that incorporates multi-disciplinary regulatory mechanism along with community inputs for better decision support. Through a case study application in a coastal zone North-Eastern of the Nile Delta of Egypt, the hypothesis of having a multi-disciplinary adaptation plan cutting across major sectors, while applying an interactive framework that ensure involvement of communities and stakeholders all along the planning process, proved to lead to strengthened resilience of coastal developments facing climate change impact. Changes in climate in terms of temperatures, precipitation and sea levels are having immediate hydrological alterations that, in turn, have consequences on environmental and socio-economic state. Vulnerability to these potential impacts depends on variations in the capabilities to adapt to and prepare for the changes. With challenges facing policy makers and practitioners concerned with climate change worldwide, this research presents an integrated approach for adaptive capacity assessment to projected climate change and sea level rise in an active coastal area. Adaptive capacity is typically evaluated ecologically with academic perspective, in one hand, and socially in the other. In this research study an interactive methodology has been employed so that adaptive behavior is detected and adjusted during the research process before concluding the final adaptation policy. Various dimensions are dealt with simultaneously, hydrological, environmental, socio- economic and physical responses to climate changes. Earlier studies conducted within the framework of efforts for climate change impact assessment have concluded potential system malfunctionality with reference to predicted Sea Level Rise scenarios. Results showed prospective alterations in terms of advancement of shoreline inland and inundation threats, salinity intrusion into coastal aquifer and raise in groundwater level, and excess discharges into the agricultural drainage network. The paper first presents a review of formal definitions for the adaptive capacity in literature to be employed as reference in analysis. On basis of the study findings, this research highlights certain considerations in assessing adaptive capacity of coastal zone for the area under consideration in the delta. The paper is concluding with recommended measures to be considered for stronger adaptive capacity to climate change. In this context, basic measures should include, beside the physical adaptation measures, preparing civil society, decision makers as well as scientific community with required knowledge and advanced equipment. Most of all, flexibility is an important ingredient to be added to policy planning in order to face the wide range of predictions and continuous alteration in conditions. II. Background Sea Level Rise has been recognized as early as in the mid-19th century. However, during the 20th century, sea level rose about 15-20 centimeters (roughly 1.5 to 2.0 mm/year), with the rate at the end of the century greater than over the early part of the century. Recent increase of rate is depicted to jump to about 3.1 mm/year, which is significantly higher than the average rate for the 20th century (Douglas, 1997 and IPCC, 2007) Alarmed with findings of the worst scenario A1F1 stated in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report and the First National Communication which has reported that over 30% (about third) of the Delta area would be inundated by year 2100 as a result of climate change and sea level rise, extensive studies to assess actual vulnerability degree of the Nile Delta coastal zone have been conducted. While results of the Coastal Research Institute (CoRI) downscaling in the Second National Communication on climate change (SNC) assured different findings and less threat than early findings, yet concerns at certain delta coastal areas have still been valid.

Erosion and Culture

Climate change and energy scarcity pose challenges for the sustainability of the Mississippi River Delta and its future restoration. Projected trends for climate change suggest increasing risk in the coastal zone from sea-level rise, more frequent high-intensity hurricanes, and increased Mississippi River discharge. Simultaneously, analysis of energy return on investment suggests that energy is becoming more expensive and difficult to produce, which does not bode well for energy intensive activities like building river levees and pumping dredged sediment. For these reasons, while coastal restoration is becoming progressively urgent, its implementation will be both challenging and expensive. The objective of this chapter is to introduce the basic science behind climate change and energy, and discuss its relevance to the Mississippi River Delta. The evidence presented here makes it clear that the current management of the delta is unsustainable, and an aggressive new approach based on the natural functioning of the delta is required in the future.

Sea level rise caused by global climate change has significant impacts on coastal zone. The mangrove ecosystems occur at the intertidal zone in tropical and subtropical coasts and are particularly sensitive to sea level rise. To study the responses of mangrove ecosystems to sea level rise,assess the impacts of sea level rise on mangrove ecosystem and formulate the feasible and practical mitigation strategies are the important prerequisites for securing the coastal ecosystems. In this research,taking the mangrove ecosystems in the coastal zone of Qinzhou Bay,Guangxi province as a case study,the main impacts of sea level rise on the mangrove ecosystems were analyzed by adopting the SPRC( Source- Pathway-ReceptorConsequence) model. An indicator system for vulnerability assessment on coastal mangrove ecosystems under sea level rise was worked out,according to the IPCC definition of vulnerability,i.e. the aspects of exposure,sensitivity and adaptation.The rate of sea level rise,subsidence /uplift rate,habitat elevation,daily mean inundation duration,intertidal slope and sedimentation rate were selected as the key indicators,taking into account of the characteristics of quantification,data accessibility,spatial and temporal heterogeneity. A quantitatively spatial assessment method based on the GIS platform wasestablished by quantifying each indicator,calculating the vulnerability index and grading the vulnerability. The vulnerability assessment based on the sea-level rise rates of the present trend( the rate of sea level rise in the past 40 years),the B1 and A1FI scenarios in IPCC SRES were performed for three sets of projections of short-term( 2030s),mid-term( 2050s) and long-term( 2100s). The results showed the mangrove ecosystems in the coastal zone of Qinzhou Bay was within the grade of no vulnerability at the present sea level rise rate of 0.29 cm /a and the B1 scenario of 0.38 cm /a for the projections of2030s,2050s and 2100s,respectively. As the sedimentation and land uplift could offset the rate of sea level rise and the impact of sea level rise on habitats /species of mangrove ecosystems was negligible. While in the A1FI scenario at sea level rise rate of 0.59 cm /a,the percentage of mangrove ecosystems within the grade of low vulnerability could reach 41.3% in2050,and increased to 69.8% in 2100. The spatiotemporal occurrences of low vulnerability were mainly distributed in the northern coast of Maoweihai. The SPRC model and the methodology for vulnerability assessment developed from this study can objectively and quantitatively assess the vulnerability of coastal mangrove ecosystems in Qinzhou Bay under the impact of sea level rise caused by climate change. Based on the results from this study,some mitigation measures should be considered in the future for securing the coastal mangrove ecosystems,which include management of sedimentation,rehabilitating and recreating mangrove habitat,and controlling reclamation. The results from this study could provide a scientific basis on formulating feasible and practical mitigation strategies for coastal mangrove ecosystems under the impact of sea level rise,which is an important prerequisite for securing the coastal zone ecosystems.