Coastal Georgia Is Not Immune: Hurricane History, 1851–2012

Abstract

Coastal Georgia Is Not ImmuneHurricane History, 1851–2012 Brian H. Bossak (bio), Sarah S. Keihany (bio), Mark R. Welford (bio), and Ethan J. Gibney (bio) introduction Atlantic hurricanes, documented since the voyages of Christopher Columbus (Chenoweth 2006), present the greatest annual meteorological hazards of the southern and eastern shores of the U.S. Weather records, ship logs, diaries, and newspapers describe historical hurricanes from the early 18th century, but the official North Atlantic Basin hurricane database (HURDAT2) dates back only to 1851 and is currently being reanalyzed for accuracy and storm additions (Landsea et al. 2012). Hurricanes generally have the greatest physical impact at landfall. Among the southeastern states of the U.S., Georgia has experienced infrequent hurricane landfalls in recent decades. However, HURDAT2 data indicate temporal variability in Georgia’s hurricane activity, which could influence hurricane preparedness efforts among coastal and near-coastal Georgia residents. In order to better characterize the risk of hurricane landfall along Georgia’s shoreline, we utilize HURDAT2 data. Prior research has utilized historical records to regionally examine hurricane landfalls along the U.S. coast. For example, Mock has conducted studies for South Carolina (2004) and Louisiana (2008). Fraser (2006) has noted historic Georgia hurricanes as described in newspapers and other written documentation, but a focus on coastal Georgia’s HURDAT2 data is novel. We analyze the frequency trends, intensity over time, seasonality, zone of formation, time from formation to landfall, and spatial distribution for Georgia’s fourteen recorded hurricane landfalls in HURDAT2. background This analysis was motivated by the infrequency of modern Georgia hurricane landfalls, increasing coastal population, concomitant property development, and changes in the socioeconomic strata along and near Georgia’s coast. Disasters are a composite of social, political, [End Page 323] and economic environmental variables extending beyond the natural event that caused them (Forthergill and Peek 2004). Georgia exhibits both physical and social vulnerabilities (Ashley 2007) and/or marginalized populations (Tobin and Montz 1997; Quinn 2006). High rates of poverty, functional illiteracy, and mobile home occupancy are increasing across rural areas in the southern U.S. and Georgia, with coexistent poor communication infrastructure (Ashley et al. 2008; Hall and Ashley 2008). Georgia also has a growing immigrant population that does not speak English at home (Blumenfeld 2008). Moreover, temporary or mobile housing is especially vulnerable to damage from weather-related wind events (Ashley et al. 2008). For example, all but nine of the 6,600 mobile homes in the path of Hurricane Andrew’s traverse across south Florida were destroyed in 1992 (Metro Dade Planning Department 1992). Approximately 10 percent of Georgia residents live in mobile homes (U.S. Census Bureau 2008). Research also illustrates that hazard preparedness increases with income, while increased educational-attainment counteracts fatalism and fosters preparedness (Turner et al. 1986). Recent statistics suggest that between 6 and 23 percent of people in the United States are functionally illiterate (National Center for Education Statistics 2003); one of the highest rates of functional illiteracy (between 1950–2010) occurs in Georgia (17 percent). Georgia has witnessed the largest percentage increase (164.1 percent) by state in the population of people that do not speak English in their homes (1990–2000) (National Center for Education Statistics 2003). This presents its own risk for minority communities, which typically rely on kin and social networks for information, thus frequently delaying risk-aversion behavior (Mejer 1994). For instance, research demonstrates that Mexican-Americans accept a warning as credible only after confirming it among familial and social networks (Fothergill et al. 1999; Lindell and Perry 2004; Perry and Mushkatel 1986). Anecdotal statements suggesting that the Georgia coastline is protected from hurricane landfalls due to its geographic orientation and proximity to the Atlantic Bight have been associated with Georgia’s infrequent hurricane landfalls in the modern record. This is a geographic coincidence—the shape of the Georgia coastline is not protectively oriented; rather, atmospheric processes tend to steer hurricanes either parallel but offshore to Georgia’s coastline (e.g., Hurricane Floyd in 1999) or turn hurricanes away from the Georgia coastline and back out into the Atlantic (McCloskey et al. 2013). Hurricanes approaching the North American Atlantic seaboard have two common tracks: either they approach from...