Co-Benefits of CO2 and NOx Emission Control in China’s Cement Industry

Abstract

Over the past 30 years, China’s cement industry has experienced rapid development. In this study the authors estimate the emissions trend, emissions control policies, and costs of the policies in China’s cement industry under various economic growth scenarios. First, the authors develop a bottom-up energy system — multi-pollutant abatement planning (MAP) model for China’s cement industry based on the existing productivity, a set of retrofitting options and new investments, alternative fuels, and various available emission control technologies. Second, the authors identify key drivers of cement demand to develop scenarios for future cement demand (2012–2030) and corresponding output peak time under high/low economic growth conditions. Third, the authors consider three scenarios including current policies without carbon control (BAU), moderately low carbon scenario (MLC), and radically low carbon scenario (RLC). The scenarios are being built up with different emission control goals and also compared by costs with estimation of marginal abatement cost curve for cement industry. Finally, based on the estimates the authors suggest a cost-efficient green/low carbon development roadmap for China’s cement sector, considering best available technological options and policy instruments. The study estimates the benefits of co-controlling air pollutants and CO2 emissions, and proposes an innovative mechanism to deal with air pollution and climate change.