CMIP5 Projections of Two Types of El Niño and Their Related Tropical Precipitation in the Twenty-First Century

Abstract

Abstract Future projections of the eastern-Pacific (EP) and central-Pacific (CP) types of El Niño in the twenty-first century, as well as their associated tropical circulation and precipitation variability, are investigated using historical runs and representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) simulations from 31 coupled models in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). As inferred from CMIP5 models that best capture both El Niño flavors, EP El Niño sea surface temperature (SST) variability will become weaker in the future climate, while no robust change of CP El Niño SST is found. Models also reach no consensus on the future change of relative frequency from CP to EP El Niño. However, there are robust changes in the tropical overturning circulation and precipitation associated with both types of El Niño. Under a warmer climate, magnitudes of precipitation anomalies during EP El Niño are projected to increase, presenting significant enhancement of the dry (wet) signal over the western (central–eastern) Pacific. This is consistent with an accelerated hydrological cycle in the deep tropics; hence, a “wet get wetter” picture appears under global warming, accompanied by a weakened anomalous Walker circulation. For CP El Niño, drier-than-normal conditions will be intensified over the tropical central–eastern Pacific in the future climate, with stronger anomalous sinking related to the strengthened North Pacific local Hadley cell. These results suggest that, besides the enhanced basic-state hydrological cycle over the tropics, other elements, such as the anomalous overturning circulation, might also play a role in determining the ENSO precipitation response to a warmer background climate.