Cluster-based LSTM models to improve Dengue cases forecast

Abstract

Public health problems such as dengue fever need accurate forecasts so governments can take effective preventive measures. Deep learning (DL) and machine learning have become increasingly popular as the volume of data increases continuously. Nevertheless, performing accurate predictions in areas with fewer cases can be challenging. When we apply DL models using long short-term memory (LSTM) in different cities considering weekly dengue incidence and climate, some models may present heterogeneous behaviours and poor accuracy because of the need for more data. To mitigate this problem, clustering analysis across time series is performed based on scores to measure the clustering quality in 217 Paraguayan cities. First, we compare the raw and feature-based clustering techniques considering several metrics.Our results indicate that hierarchical clustering combined with Spearman correlation is the most appropriate approach. Finally, several LSTM models built using clustering results were compared. The main contribution of this work is a technique that can improve the performance of time series models that combine information from similar time series and weather data.