Climate variability and its long-term trends in central Taraba, Nigeria: implications for local ecosystems and rural livelihoods

Abstract

This study examines the long-term trends of climate variability in Central Taraba, Nigeria, with a focus on analyzing temperature and rainfall patterns from 1980 to 2020. Central Taraba has witnessed notable shifts in climate patterns, characterized by increasing temperatures, erratic rainfall, and prolonged periods of drought and excessive rainfall. These climatic changes pose significant threats to local ecosystems and rural livelihoods, which rely heavily on rain-fed agriculture and natural resources. The research highlights significant fluctuations in both rainfall and temperature, underscoring the challenges posed by climate variability to the region’s ecological and socio-economic systems. The primary objectives of this study are to examine the extent of climate variability on key ecosystem services, assess its impacts on local livelihoods, and identify sustainable management strategies to address these effects. Results show a clear upward trend in both minimum and maximum temperatures across the study area, with some towns experiencing more pronounced increases in minimum temperatures. Rainfall patterns reveal an erratic trend with periods of both drought and excessive rainfall, though a slight but statistically insignificant downward trend in rainfall was observed in most towns. These climatic shifts have profound implications for agriculture, water resources, and rural livelihoods, as communities in the region heavily depend on rain-fed farming and natural ecosystems for sustenance. The study also underscores the pressing need for adaptive strategies such as climate-resilient agriculture and improved water resource management to mitigate the adverse effects of climate variability. Recommendations emphasize strengthening community resilience and integrating climate data into regional development policies to safeguard local livelihoods and ecosystems from future climate-related risks.