Abstract
Even as summers become drier, the incidence of severe precipitation could increase. Using a high-resolution climate model, we are able to quantify the influence of greenhouse-gas-induced global warming upon heavy or extended precipitation episodes that inflict catastrophic flooding. We find that an increase in the amount of precipitation that exceeds the 95th percentile is very likely in many areas of Europe, despite a possible reduction in average summer precipitation over a substantial part of the continent. Our results indicate that episodes of severe flooding may become more frequent, despite a general trend towards drier summer conditions.
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