Abstract
Many ectotherms have altered their geographic ranges in response to rising global temperatures. Current range shifts will likely increase the sympatry and hybridisation between recently diverged species. Here we predict future sympatric distributions and risk of hybridisation in seven Mediterranean ischnurid damselfly species (I. elegans, I. fountaineae, I. genei, I. graellsii, I. pumilio, I. saharensis and I. senegalensis). We used a maximum entropy modelling technique to predict future potential distribution under four different Global Circulation Models and a realistic emissions scenario of climate change. We carried out a comprehensive data compilation of reproductive isolation (habitat, temporal, sexual, mechanical and gametic) between the seven studied species. Combining the potential distribution and data of reproductive isolation at different instances (habitat, temporal, sexual, mechanical and gametic), we infer the risk of hybridisation in these insects. Our findings showed that all but I. graellsii will decrease in distributional extent and all species except I. senegalensis are predicted to have northern range shifts. Models of potential distribution predicted an increase of the likely overlapping ranges for 12 species combinations, out of a total of 42 combinations, 10 of which currently overlap. Moreover, the lack of complete reproductive isolation and the patterns of hybridisation detected between closely related ischnurids, could lead to local extinctions of native species if the hybrids or the introgressed colonising species become more successful.
Highlights
Numerous studies addressing species’ responses to climate change, mostly in animals, have provided evidence of altered geographic ranges in response to rising global temperatures [1,2]
We have explored the risk of extirpation of native species by the invasion of close relatives in response to climate change in seven Mediterranean ischnurid, odonate species (I. elegans, I. fountaineae, I. genei, I. graellsii, I. pumilio, I. saharensis and I. senegalensis)
Optimal models for I. elegans, I. genei, I. pumilio and I. senegalensis were generated using the three variables (Annual Mean Temperature, Temperature Annual Range and Annual Precipitation), while Temperature Annual Range was not used for I. fountaineae, I. graellsii and I. saharensis
Summary
Numerous studies addressing species’ responses to climate change, mostly in animals, have provided evidence of altered geographic ranges in response to rising global temperatures [1,2]. If F1 hybrids backcross with at least one of the parental genotypes and the resulting backcrossed individuals subsequently mate with the most similar parental genotype, novel genes can be rapidly introduced into the new genetic background [8]. The consequence of this situation is a massive introgression of genes between local and invading species [9], forming stable and long-lasting hybrid zones [10,11,12]. Another possible consequence is the local extinction of native species which occur when the new hybrid or the invading species is more successful and displaces the native species [4]
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