Abstract
Climate change is one of the main drivers of species extinction in the twentyfirst-century. Here, we (1) quantify potential changes in species' bioclimatic area of habitat (BAH) of 135 native potential agroforestry species from the Brazilian flora, using two different climate change scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) and dispersal scenarios, where species have no ability to disperse and reach new areas (non-dispersal) and where species can migrate within the estimated BAH (full dispersal) for 2041–2060 and 2061–2080. We then (2) assess the preliminary conservation status of each species based on IUCN criteria. Current and future potential habitats for species were predicted using MaxEnt, a machine-learning algorithm used to estimate species' probability distribution. Future climate is predicted to trigger a mean decline in BAH between 38.5–56.3% under the non-dispersal scenario and between 22.3–41.9% under the full dispersal scenario for 135 native potential agroforestry species. Additionally, we found that only 4.3% of the studied species could be threatened under the IUCN Red List criteria B1 and B2. However, when considering the predicted quantitative habitat loss due to climate change (A3c criterion) the percentages increased between 68.8–84.4% under the non-dispersal scenario and between 40.7–64.4% under the full dispersal scenario. To lessen such threats, we argue that encouraging the use of these species in rural and peri-urban agroecosystems are promising, complementary strategies for their long-term conservation.
Highlights
Climate change is one of the main drivers of species extinction in the twentyfirst-century
We found that future climate change was predicted to cause a decline in bioclimatic area of habitat (BAH) between 38.5–56.3% under the non-dispersal scenario and between 22.3–41.9% under the full dispersal scenario in 135 Brazilian native species
The worst-case scenario (SSP5-8.5) showed the highest average decline in BAH in both non-dispersal (56.3%) and full dispersal (41.9%), when compared to the stabilization scenario (SSP2-4.5) and in 2061–2080, showing that species tend to be more threatened in this scenario and year, as demonstrated in other studies conducted with Brazilian species[49,50]
Summary
Climate change is one of the main drivers of species extinction in the twentyfirst-century. Several studies have sought to better understand the impact of climate change on the distribution of plant species with narrow-ranged distribution or threatened with extinction, we note that no study has yet focused on species of agroforestry interest in Brazil, which generally have widespread distribution. These species are promising for conservation-by-use, an approach used by people communities for millennia in different ecosystems in B razil[41,42]
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