Abstract
AbstractAimAs a prominent geographical distribution centre for the dark coniferous forests, mountains of Southwest China (MSWC) is experiencing an unprecedented warming trend, posing severe challenges to the survival of dominant fir (Abies) species. Although plant's migration ability is a prerequisite for its survival in changing environments, it has often been ignored in species distribution models (SDMs). This study aimed to quantify the magnitude and direction of range changes by the year 2080 for six dominant fir species, that isAbies recurvata,Abies faxoniana,Abies squamata,Abies ernestii,Abies forrestiiandAbies georgei, with an emphasis on exploring the relationship between migration ability and projected distributions.LocationThe mountains of Southwest China.MethodsWe applied the Maximum Entropy (Maxent) algorithm to calibrate ecological niche models and to project the climatically suitable areas (CSAs) of each species under two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Additionally, we delimited future species ranges by three migration scenarios (full‐, no‐ and partial‐migration scenarios).ResultsThe simulations showed the distinctive responses of the six fir species to anthropogenic climate change (ACC). By 2080, the distribution areas ofAbies recurvatawere projected to decline only in the no‐migration scenario but increase under the full‐ and partial‐migration scenarios, while the other five species were projected to decline in the majority of emission × migration scenarios. Fir species in the southern region were predicted to be more vulnerable to ACC due to the larger losses in CSAs and a stronger effect of the partial‐migration scenario on the newly colonized areas of this group. The studied species showed a simulated migration trend (northward and westward) to the interior Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau under ACC.Main conclusionsBenefits or losses for species under ACC depended on the geographical location, their ecological niches and migration abilities, which provide essential insights for a spatial conservation assessment of biodiversity hotspots in the future.
Highlights
The human influences on climate-changing are significant and are dominated by the emissions into the atmosphere of greenhouse gases (IPCC, 2013; Neukom et al, 2019; Ripple et al, 2017; Steffen et al, 2018)
Some species do not have sufficient distribution data for successful modelling (Stockwell & Peterson, 2002). According to their current geographical distributions (Fan, 2006), six dominant and endemic fir species were selected and divided into three groups: “North”—Abies recurvata and Abies faxoniana, which mainly occur in the upper Minjiang River region; “Middle”—Abies squamata and Abies ernestii, which occur in the western Sichuan Plateau; and “South”—Abies forrestii and Abies georgei, which occur in the narrow Hengduan Mountains region (Figure 1; Figure 2; Table 1)
Our climate niche models identified solar radiation as a key factor shaping the distribution of the “North” group of species, while temperature seasonality was identified as a key factor affecting the “South” group of species
Summary
The human influences on climate-changing are significant and are dominated by the emissions into the atmosphere of greenhouse gases (IPCC, 2013; Neukom et al, 2019; Ripple et al, 2017; Steffen et al, 2018). A few studies have compared current and future suitable habitats of firs in China at the genus level by SDMs, and they suggest that the ranges of firs will shrink and shift northward under future ACC (Liu, Wang, He, & Zhang, 2018; Shao, Zhang, Phan, & Xiang, 2017) When these SDMs were conducted, the influence of migration ability was ignored, and differences among species were masked by modelling the whole genus. Due to the complex topography and climate conditions of the MSWC, we formulated three hypotheses: (I) assuming full migration, driven by different climatic factors, not all firs of this region will face a reduction in CSAs, and some may benefit from future climate change and obtain larger CSAs; (II) assuming partial migration, the predicted areas of newly colonized habitats of some fir species may be significantly reduced; and (III) not all species are expected to migrate northward in response to rapid future climate change. We applied three migration scenarios for each fir's future prediction: full-, no- and partial-migration scenarios (Bateman et al, 2013)
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