Abstract
The trends and variability of climate change were studied through analyzing the trend of change in the annual temperature and rainfall averages during the period (1960 – 2016) in Al-Sheikh Badr Region by using Normal Distribution and De-Martonne index. The results showed a (-189 mm) linear decrease in the general trend of the rainfall, associated with a (+0.9o C) increase in the general trend of the temperature between 1960 and 2016. Also, Normal distribution showed that the probability of extreme temperatures events higher than 17.5oC increased from 3.3% during the period 1960-1990 to 24.8% during the period 1991-2016. While the probability of an extreme annual rainfall (more than 1800 mm) decreases from 5.3% to 4.7%, nevertheless, the probability of rainfall events less than 800mm where increased. Furthermore, there is a significant trend of drought in the studied area, where the De-Martonne index reaches (-10.75) through the period (1960-2016).
Highlights
In this era, climate change has been considered as one of the most global phenomena that affected many ecosystems, resulting in floods, droughts, and rainfall changes
Climate change components had not been widely studied in Syria, Jalab et al (2014) proved that there is a significant increase in the average annual temperature in the three regions (Latakia, Kasaab and Slenfeh)
The general trend of temperature was (+ 0.9)°C linear increase during the period 1960-2016 at the study area, as illustrate in Fig. 2, where it showes a gradual increase since 1970 and a clear higher increase of air temperatures since 2000. These result come along with Lionello et al (2014) research, where they pointed out the rapidly rising of temperatures in the Mediterranean region through the last decades; which leads to significant upward temperature trends since the 1970s (Lelieveld et al 2016; Zarenistanak et al 2014)
Summary
Climate change has been considered as one of the most global phenomena that affected many ecosystems, resulting in floods, droughts, and rainfall changes. Syria, which located in the Middle East, has affected badly by climate change (Skaf and Mathbout 2010; Giorgi 2006; Toreti et al 2016) including gradually declining in average rainfall patterns and increasing average of temperature, which leads to more drought conditions (Åkesson and Falk 2015). Alsaleh, et al (2005) indicate that the surface air temperature in Syrian stations seems to be affected by solar cycle and quasi-biennial oscillation as well as the El-Nino southern oscillation with positive trend of annual and seasonal temperature for all studied locations except Latakia during the period from 1955 to 2000. Nouaceur and Mursrescu (2016) analyzed rainfall data from three Mediterranean countries (Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia) and pointed out of the beginning of a gradual return to wetter conditions in these countries, which considered as the first indicator against IPCC reports
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