Climate change implications for stand yields and soil expectation values: A northern Saskatchewan case study

Abstract

We explore the effects of climate change on future stand yields and future area burned, and integrate these to determine future Soil Expectation Values (SEV) for white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) in central Saskatchewan. The results suggest that under most future scenarios, stand productivity increases, but decreases under extreme drought. However, projected increases in area burned offset these productivity increases. Under high levels of future area burned, SEV is lower than current values, resulting in a negative economic impact. We also find that the optimal economic rotation age under future climate is lower than that under present climatic conditions. Key words: climate change impacts, forest management, stand yield effects, forest ecosystem models, CO2fertilization, stomatal control, PnET, fire cycles, soil expectation values, optimal economic rotation, adaptation