Abstract
An extensive literature on climate change modeling points to future changes in wind climates. Some areas are projected to gain wind resources, while others are projected to lose wind resources. Oklahoma is presently wind rich with this resource extensively exploited for power generation. Our work examined the wind power implications under the IPCC’s A2 scenario for the decades 2040–2049, 2050–2059 and 2060–2069 as compared to model reanalysis and Oklahoma Mesonetwork observations for the base decade of 1990–1999. Using two western Oklahoma wind farms as examples, we used North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) modeling outputs to calculate changes in wind power generation. The results show both wind farms to gain in output for all decades as compared to 1990–1999. Yet, the results are uneven by seasons and with some decades exhibiting decreases in the fall. These results are of interest in that it is clear that investors cannot count on wind studies of the present to adequately characterize future productivity. If our results are validated over time, Oklahoma stands to gain wind resources through the next several decades.
Highlights
Oklahoma possesses some of the best wind resources in the world
This study focuses on how climate change could impact future wind resources in western Oklahoma, with attention to a gain or loss in resulting power generation
North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) global climate models (GCMs) runs simulating past conditions from 1990 through 1999; NARCCAP GCM output from 2039 through 2070; A pair of wind farm locations in the domain falling in locations where projected wind velocity changes are greatest; Oklahoma Mesonetwork wind velocity data; the wind turbine power curve for the common 1.5-MW General Electric SLE turbine
Summary
Oklahoma possesses some of the best wind resources in the world. wind regimes are dynamic in nature. This study focuses on how climate change could impact future wind resources in western Oklahoma, with attention to a gain or loss in resulting power generation. It is clear that such investment needs as much informed long-term wind characterization as is possible; huge capital investments in resources are not made lightly. In a world of climate change, investors are not altogether safe to compute their return on investment using recent wind data. When examining numerical outputs of any of the major climate models, it is manifest that wind resource changes will vary regionally. Possible wind climate changes are not a trivial concern in Oklahoma. The purpose of the present article is to illustrate regional spatial differences in model output for future Oklahoma wind and to calculate potential future power generation at a pair of wind farms
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