Climate change impact on the technical-economic potential for solar photovoltaic energy in the residential sector: a case study for Brazil

Abstract

Climate change could affect solar photovoltaic power by altering climate variables, such as global horizontal irradiance, surface wind speed and surface air temperature. This study evaluates the potential for distributed solar photovoltaic power in the Brazilian residential sector under current climate and climate change scenarios. The applied methodology uses estimations for the number of residences country-wide and their available roof area, meteorological data, electricity tariffs, investment costs, financing conditions and climate projections to assess the technical and economic potential for solar photovoltaic power generation under current climate and 1.5°C, 2.0°C and 4.0°C Specific Warming Levels (SWL) scenarios. In the most aggressive climate change scenario, national technical and economic potentials would fall -0.84% and -0.008% compared to current climate, respectively. The South region would be the most affected, with reductions of -3.62% and -0.05% in this same scenario. Some municipalities in the Brazilian North and Northeast could even experience increases in solar PV power output under climate change scenarios, albeit at the cost of large impacts in other sectors not considered here (e.g. increased energy demand, impact on other renewable energy sources and price volatility induced by extreme weather events). Therefore, distributed solar photovoltaic potential in the Brazil is robust to climate change and can thus be regarded as an important source to conciliate climate change mitigation and adaptation.