Abstract
A paper published in Global Change Biology in 2006 revealed that phenological responses in 1971-2000 matched the warming pattern in Europe, but a lack of chilling and adaptation in farming may have reversed these findings. Therefore, for 1951-2018 in a corresponding data set, we determined changes as linear trends and analysed their variation by plant traits/groups, across season and time as well as their attribution to warming following IPCC methodology. Although spring and summer phases in wild plants advanced less (maximum advances in 1978-2007), more (~90%) and more significant (~60%) negative trends were present, being stronger in early spring, at higher elevations, but smaller for nonwoody insect-pollinated species. These trends were strongly attributable to winter and spring warming. Findings for crop spring phases were similar, but were less pronounced. There were clearer and attributable signs for a delayed senescence in response to winter and spring warming. These changes resulted in a longer growing season, but a constant generative period in wild plants and a shortened one in agricultural crops. Phenology determined by farmers' decisions differed noticeably from the purely climatic driven phases with smaller percentages of advancing (~75%) trends, but farmers' spring activities were the only group with reinforced advancement, suggesting adaptation. Trends in farmers' spring and summer activities were very likely/likely associated with the warming pattern. In contrast, the advance in autumn farming phases was significantly associated with below average summer warming. Thus, under ongoing climate change with decreased chilling the advancing phenology in spring and summer is still attributable to warming; even the farmers' activities in these seasons mirror, to a lesser extent, the warming. Our findings point to adaptation to climate change in agriculture and reveal diverse implications for terrestrial ecosystems; the strong attribution supports the necessary mediation of warming impacts to the general public.
Highlights
Plant phenology is one of the oldest forms of environmental monitoring, with phenological observations taken by ancient civilizations (Koch et al, 2007; Schwartz, 2003), it was only in the 1990s that its renaissance started with key publications on detection of climate change impacts on global vegetation
With more than 1,500 citations in the Web of Science Core Collection, this study has a high relevance for the scientific discourse on climate change impacts on the biosphere
Since a direct comparison of the almost 97,000 Update series to the GCB2006 ones was not possible, we simulated GCB2006s results based on Update to study the effects of ongoing climate change after 2000 as well as of longer series (15+ vs. 30+ years)
Summary
Plant phenology is one of the oldest forms of environmental monitoring, with phenological observations taken by ancient civilizations (Koch et al, 2007; Schwartz, 2003), it was only in the 1990s that its renaissance started with key publications on detection of climate change impacts on global vegetation. Keeling, Chin, and Whorf (1996) were the first to report a 7 day earlier start of the growing season based on long-term measurements of atmospheric CO2 concentration, which Myneni, Keeling, Tucker, Asrar, and Nemani (1997) confirmed using normalized difference vegetation index satellite data from the Northern Hemisphere. Spatial variations in temperature sensitivity have been linked to mean annual temperature and to seasonal temperature range (Lapenis, Henry, Vuille, & Mower, 2014; Menzel, Sparks, Estrella, & Roy, 2006; Wang et al, 2014) Both major backup systems to prevent a premature spring development (chilling, photoperiod) may lead to nonlinear responses of phenological onset dates to forcing temperatures (Jochner, Sparks, Laube, & Menzel, 2016). A publication has already indicated that there were no trends in spring and autumn phenology during this warming hiatus period (Wang et al, 2019) Another phenological regime shift in the mid-1980s was related to discontinuous temperature changes (Reid et al, 2016). Addressing the discussion on lack of chilling, altered warming patterns and differential responses in farming we ask whether, and for which phenological groups, there is still an attributable fingerprint of climate change in phenology
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
