Climate change and transition in cropping patterns: District level evidence from West Bengal, India

Abstract

With changing climatic and market conditions, Indian agriculture sector needs appropriate transition in cropping patterns to ensure sustainability in growth of the sector and inclusiveness of land-constrained farmers in the intensification process. The need for transition in cropping patterns has been accentuated further following the COVID-19 pandemic that has led to loss of non-farm livelihood opportunities for millions and thus created further pressure on agriculture. Nevertheless, promoting transition in the sector would require deeper understanding of the underlying factors and addressing them through appropriate intervention strategies. This paper attempts for the same in context of West Bengal, India that houses significant number of land-constrained farmers. Using panel data of 18 districts for the period from 2004 to 05 to 2013–14, the paper finds crop diversification, irrigation, fertilizer use, road connectivity and market and storage facilities as the major drivers of agrarian transition in favour of non-foodgrains. In addition, the climatic factors such as relative humidity and variations in temperature also influence such transition. While the findings apparently suggest for further development of infrastructure facilities, sustaining the transition would also require agricultural education, extension services and development of human and social capitals in a decentralized manner to incorporate various local level dynamics.