Abstract
Agricultural production in sub-Saharan Africa remains dependent on high inputs of human labor, a situation associated with direct exposure to daylight heat during critical periods of the agricultural calendar. We ask the question: how is the Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) going to be distributed in the future, and how will this affect the ability of smallholder farmers to perform agricultural activities? Data from general circulation models are used to estimate the distribution of WBGT in 2000, 2050 and 2100, and for high activity periods in the agricultural calendar. The distribution of WBGT is divided into recommended maximum WBGT exposure levels (°C) at different work intensities, and rest/work ratios for an average acclimatized worker wearing light clothing (ISO, 18). High WBGTs are observed during the two periods of the East African. In February to March, eastern and coastal regions of Kenya and Tanzania witness high WBGT values—some necessitating up to 75% rest/hour work intensities in 2050 and 2100. In August to September, eastern and northern Kenya and north and central Uganda are vulnerable to high WBGT values. Designing policies to address this key challenge is a critical element in adaptation methods to address the impact of climate change.
Highlights
Climate change is already adversely affecting the health of populations around the world, with the greatest impacts in low-income countries [1,2]
ResultsThe and Discussion hypothesis advanced by this study that the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) in East
African croplandsadvanced in 2000 remains andBulb in 2100 is rejected, as high(WBGT)
Summary
Climate change is already adversely affecting the health of populations around the world, with the greatest impacts in low-income countries [1,2]. As a result of climate change, mean annual temperatures and the intensity and frequency of heat waves are expected to increase [3]. Scenario-based projections forecast that average global surface temperatures will increase by 1.4 to 5.8 ◦ C from 1990 to 2100 [7]. This is bound to have substantial implications for human health, with the potential of contributing to an increase in future heat-related morbidity and mortality [1,8,9,10]. This study sought posits that Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT)
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