Abstract
The impact of climate change on potato productivity in Madhya Pradesh was analysed using WOFOST crop growth simulation model. The potato cultivars of three maturity groups viz., Kufri Badshah (late), Kufri Jyoti (medium) and Kufri Pukhraj (short) were selected. The study was carried out for 38 representative locations of the state. The study was done for baseline scenario (2000) and for futureclimate scenarios for the years 2020 and 2055 using A1FI scenario of temperature (SRES A1FI pathway) and atmospheric CO2 (based on the Bern-CC model for A1FI scenario). Simulation revealed that although the increase in temperature is likely to reduce the yield by 10 to 11.4 per cent in 2020 and 22.9 to 27 per cent in 2055, a corresponding increase in CO2 may increase the yields by 4.6 to 4.9 per cent in 2020 and 19.6 to 21 per cent in 2055. However, the combined effect of CO2 and temperature will lead to a decline in productivity of Kufri Pukhraj by 7.6 per cent, followed by 7.3 per cent in Kufri Jyoti and 6.4 per cent in Kufri Badshah in 2020, with corresponding figures of 14.3, 12.8 and 10.9 per cent in 2055. Results, further revealed that the negative effect of climate change on potato productivity can be counter balanced to some extent by changing the dates of planting and/or selection of suitable varieties for the location, as it may bring down the reduction in yield from 3.7 to 0.7 per cent in 2020 and 7.7 to 3.3 per cent in 2055.
Highlights
Potato is a major food crop of the world and is largely grown during winter season in India, being mainlyconsumed as vegetable
Further revealed that the negative effect of climate change on potato productivity can be counter balanced to some extent by changing the dates of planting and/or selection of suitable varieties for the location, as it may bring down the reduction in yield from 3.7 to 0.7 per cent in 2020 and 7.7 to 3.3 per cent in 2055
Being an important potato growing region, there is an urgent need to study the impact of likely changes in temperature and CO2 on regional vulnerability of potato productivity in future in this area in order to direct our research efforts to meet the challenges and devise adaptation strategy to minimize the likely impact of climate change
Summary
Potato is a major food crop of the world and is largely grown during winter season in India, being mainlyconsumed as vegetable. Being an important potato growing region, there is an urgent need to study the impact of likely changes in temperature and CO2 on regional vulnerability of potato productivity in future in this area in order to direct our research efforts to meet the challenges and devise adaptation strategy to minimize the likely impact of climate change. For this purpose, crop growth models are very useful and are used widely to simulate crop growth and yield of annual and perennial crops under diverse situations. A study was undertaken to forecast the impact of climate change on potential potato productivity of Madhya Pradesh and to select the suitable variety and date of planting to minimize the impact of climate change
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