Abstract
The objective of this work was to analyze future scenarios for palisade grass yield subjected to climate change for the state of São Paulo, Brazil. An empirical crop model was used to estimate yields, according to growing degree-days adjusted by one drought attenuation factor. Climate data from 1963 to 2009 of 23 meteorological stations were used for current climate conditions. Downscaled outputs of two general circulation models were used to project future climate for the 2013-2040 and 2043-2070 periods, considering two contrasting scenarios of temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration increase (high and low). Annual dry matter yield should be from 14 to 42% higher than the current one, depending on the evaluated scenario. Yield variation between seasons (seasonality) and years is expected to increase. The increase of dry matter accumulation will be higher in the rainy season than in the dry season, and this result is more evident for soils with low-water storage capacity. The results varied significantly between regions (<10% to >60%). Despite their higher climate potential, warmer regions will probably have a lower increase in future forage production.
Highlights
Changes observed in recent years, associated with more pronounced climate change projections in the future, worry scientists, with regards to the impacts on various sectors of the economy, especially agriculture (Core Writing Team et al, 2007; Smith et al, 2007)
In Southeastern Brazil, studies have been performed to evaluate the tendency of past climate time-series variations (Dantas et al, 2007; Horikoshi & Fisch, 2007; Blain, 2010)
Projections for future climate were created from downscaled outputs of two general circulation models: Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies – Precis model, and ETA‐Centro de Previsão do Tempo e Estudos Climáticos ‐ ETA‐CPTEC model (Marengo et al, 2009; Pisnichenko & Tarasova, 2010; Chou et al, 2012)
Summary
Changes observed in recent years, associated with more pronounced climate change projections in the future, worry scientists, with regards to the impacts on various sectors of the economy, especially agriculture (Core Writing Team et al, 2007; Smith et al, 2007). From 1996 to 2006, the total grassland area decreased from 177.7 million to 158.6 million hectares, while in the same period cattle herds increased (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística, 2006). These data confirm the importance of pastures, indicate improvements in their use, and point out to a general area reduction trend, mainly due to environmental pressure and to the advancement of agriculture. Cattle in São Paulo state is estimated to represent 11.2 million heads, located in about 8.1 million hectares of pasture, which is about 32.6% of the total state area (Governo do Estado de São Paulo, 2008)
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