Climate change and food policy interventions: Implications for the yield response of arable crops in Nigeria

The study assessed the effect of trade liberalization on output of selected agricultural crops (rice, wheat, cocoa and cassava) in Nigeria (1986-2020). Data on the variables of the study were collected from the records of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Bank database. Data were analyzed using Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The result of the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test for unit root revealed that cassava output, cocoa output, rice output, wheat output, exchange rate, tariff and trade openness were found to have unit roots and became stationary on first differencing. The result of the long and short-run effects of trade liberalization on agricultural output using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) showed that in the long run, a unit increase in trade openness will increase cassava output by 0.603 units, decrease cocoa output by 0.53 units, increase wheat output by 6.03 units and increase rice output by 3.30 units ceteris paribus. The study concludes that trade liberalization is healthy for the agricultural sector in Nigeria. The study therefore recommended that Nigeria should adopt more policies on reducing or eliminating quotas on agricultural produce that will enable the sector to grow at spectacular rates.

** The paper is based on the study carried out by the author for FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) and FANRPAN (Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network) as a consultant.
 Based on the projection on population growth and food consumption pattern in developing countries, there is likely to be a deficit in the food production by the year
 2050. Africa’s population has just passed 1 billion and it is expected to double by the year 2050 (FAO 2012) According to FAO, Sub Saharan Africa, Uganda inclusive, is the region that has the highest proportion of poor and undernourished people in Africa (FAO,2011a). Agricultural production will, therefore have to increase by at least 70% in order to ensure that the food demands are met.
 Meeting the food demands of a growing population is already a formidable task for agricultural sector of many developing nations like Uganda but this will be further exacerbated by climate change. Largely due to climate change, agricultural productivity is likely to decrease. Similarly, the stability of production and incomes are likely to change. This trend may be even worse in countries which are already experiencing food insecurity (FAO 2012)
 The important implication of this is that for Uganda, policy makers will be faced with an even greater challenge to ensure that agriculture contributes more in addressing food security issues, development and climate change (adaptation and mitigation). In other words, agriculture in Uganda must undergo major and significant transformation in order to address the challenges likely to be faced in achieving food security and responding to climate change. Put in another way, in order to stabilize output and income, production systems must become more resilient or more capable of performing well in the face of disruptive events. This requires transformation in the management of natural resources and higher efficiency in the use of these resources and inputs for production. 
 According to FAO, approaches that seek to maximize the benefits and minimize the trade-offs across the multiple objectives, often associated with agricultural sector, require more integrated and coordinated planning, policies and institutional arrangements as well as financing and investments. Such approaches and related enabling requirements are referred to by FAO as climate smart agriculture. Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) is thus a way to ensure the achievements of future food security under climate change. CSA encompasses sustainable agriculture and it includes the need for adaptation and the potential for mitigation with associated technical, policy and financing implications.
 This scoping study attempts to review and examine the current production practices as it relates to CSA in Uganda. The study also seeks to conduct comprehensive reviews of the existing policies, analyze gaps and identify relevant policy recommendations.

Nigeria has been experiencing declining agricultural production over the past two decades despite the implementation of different policies to boost agricultural production. One such policy was the Agricultural Transformation Agenda (ATA), implemented in 2011. However, it remains unclear whether ATA succeeded in boosting agricultural supply; this study examines that issue by assessing the effect of ATA on the supply responses of six major crops in Nigeria. We used secondary data spanning l980-20l9 from reliable institutions in Nigeria. The growth model, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator were used to analyze the dynamic nature of crop supply response to address endogeneity and simultaneity bias. The findings of this study show that the trends of selected crop acreage, production and yield from l980 to 20l9 fluctuated more during the Agricultural Transformation Agenda era (ATA). Aside from the cassava crop, yield growth rates were abysmal for the remaining five crops, with a negative rice rate indicative of poor productivity during the ATA period. In addition, production was steady with high growth rates, similar to the land devoted to production (acreage) during the ATA period. Additionally, an increase in the price of cassava causes a decrease in maize production in the short and long run. There is an inverse relationship between own price and rice production in the short and long run. The non-price variables affecting maize production were acreage, exchange rate, fertilizer consumption, and school enrollment. Likewise, the level of rainfall, crop production index, exchange rate, and school enrolment influence rice production. In conclusion, production was steady with high growth rates, similar to land devoted for production (acreage) under the ATA period. We suggest that the Nigerian government and farmers should invest in technologies that shift their reliance to rain-fed agriculture.

The primary objective of this report is to document the improvements made to the Brazilian module of the Aglink-Cosimo model (Enciso et. al. 2015) (OECD/FAO, 2015) related to the inclusion of land use dynamics. Aglink-Cosimo is an agricultural partial equilibrium model developed by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) in partnership with some member countries of these organisations. It is a partial equilibrium model used to simulate the annual developments of supply, demand and prices for the main agricultural commodities produced and traded worldwide over a 10 year period. It is a recursive-dynamic model, since current economic decisions are reached by taking into account lagged information on prices and quantities. \nAglink-Cosimo model is a central model to the integrated Modelling Platform for Agro economic Commodity and Policy Analysis (iMAP) of the Joint Research Center (JRC) of the European Commission. Its main objectives are the implementation of quantitative tools for commodity market and agricultural policy analysis, and the preparation of a benchmark for the assessment of agricultural policies in a medium to long-term horizon (so-called 'baseline'). Models in iMAP are used in stand-alone mode or in combination, so as to address a broad range of topics linked to the economic assessment of the agricultural and rural development policies, as well as those concerning related topics such as trade, energy, environment, and climate change.\nThe model improvements to the Brazilian module reported here are important to assess the effects of domestic policy changes on the economic performance of the Brazilian agricultural sector, but also to analyse how agricultural production and land use in Brazil would respond to changes in world market commodity prices . The utilised agricultural area (UAA) in Brazil has increased in recent years, mainly driven by increases in multiple cropping and livestock density on pastureland. Here we propose a methodology to capture the multi cropping aspect of Brazilian agricultural in Aglink-Cosimo and expand the crop coverage of the model to also include pasture land and beans. Moreover, in order to capture the changing livestock density on pastureland, a beef cow intensity function (i.e. cow inventory divided by land use) is estimated using historical data. Last but not least, the movement and allocation of crops within Brazil are discussed in relation to their distance from ports and the associated transport costs. Internal transport costs are included in model as a relative discount to the export price depending on the distance to ports for specific crops. \nIn order to test the behaviour of the revised model, three illustrative scenarios are included in the report. A first scenario focuses on the economic impacts in the Brazilian agricultural sector of an abolishment of the biofuel blending mandates. In a second scenario, the land use effects of an intensification of cattle production in Brazil are analysed. Lastly, a scenario on the reduction of transport costs between the State of Mato Grosso and the port of Santos for agricultural commodities due to better infrastructures is depicted, with a clear focus on balance of trade effects. These scenarios show that the land use response in Brazil is strongly linked to the world market. This is not surprising, since Brazil is an important exporter of agricultural commodities, for instance soybeans and beef. The proposed scenarios also demonstrate the importance of having a complete model like Aglink-Cosimo to analyse direct and indirect land use changes.

Sustainable food production is not negotiable if food security is to be achieved. Recent statistics show increasing food insecurity issues in Nigeria despite government policy and programmes in the agricultural sector. The study specifically described agriculture growth trend under three policy regimes and analysed the effects of agricultural sector policy on food security in Nigeria between 1960 and 2020. Secondary data on agricultural output, gross deficit financing, labour employed in the agricultural sector, land, and population were obtained from World Development Indicators (WDI) of the World Bank, Food and Agriculture Organization Statistics (FAOSTAT), Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), and National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The data were analysed using trend analysis and Dummy Variable Regression (DVR) model. The Instantaneous Growth Rate (IGR) and compound growth rate (CGR) were respectively 3 percent and 7.2 percent in 1960 – 1969, 0.5 percent and 1.2 percent in 1970 – 1985, and 3.4 percent and 8.1 percent in 1986 – 2020; the country experienced stagnated pattern of growth in the agriculture sector within the oil boom and policy reconstruction period with an instantaneous and compound growth rate of 0.5 percent and 1.2 percent, respectively. An IGR and CGR of 3.4 percent and 8.1 percent, respectively were recorded during the policy stabilization era with an accelerating growth pattern. The intercept of agricultural output and per capita food production of the period with complete agricultural policy document differs from the period with no policy document by 36.8 percent and 39.8 percent, respectively, revealing an increase in the value of agricultural output and per capita food production in the period with a national policy document. The study concludes that availability of agricultural sector policy document directly impacts food security. The post-estimation tests on the models confirmed that policy implications emanating from this study are adoptable to improve food security in Nigeria through the agricultural sector policy. Proper and efficient policy mix to support agricultural production was recommended. Key words: Agricultural policy, Agricultural output, Acceleration, Dummy Variable Regression (DVR), Food security, Sustainability, Nigeria

CONTEXTIndia's agricultural systems are increasingly affected by climate change's adverse effects. The Government of India has an impressive set of programs to address this issue, but they have substantial shortcomings, especially in reaching women farmers. OBJECTIVEWe aim to understand policy and implementation gaps in reaching women farmers with climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practices and study how women and men farmer's different roles in agriculture shape their needs and access to complementary services needed to adapt to climate change. METHODSAn extensive review of India's agriculture and climate policies and program and a series of focus group discussions with farmers in Gujarat, India to discuss constraints and potential entry points for better reaching women farmers with CSA practices. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONWomen's increased vulnerability to climate change and reduced access to CSA practices can be attributed to limited land ownership, poor access to credit, reduced access to information and formal extension, and multiple pressures on their time. Village cooperatives and self-help groups can be leveraged to support women's access to agricultural information and adoption of CSA practices. SIGNIFICANCEThis paper highlights constraints to information and extension access by Indian women farmers that could impede the widespread adoption of CSA practices. It fills an important knowledge gap in designing gender-responsive policies and inclusive agricultural extension systems to promote adoption of CSA practices among smallholder farmers.

India’s agricultural systems are increasingly affected by the adverse effects of climate change. While the Government of India has put together an impressive set of programs to address climate change impacts on agriculture, substantial shortcomings of these programs have been identified, especially in reaching women farmers. Women’s increased vulnerability to climate change and reduced access to climate smart agricultural practices can be attributed to limited land ownership, poor access to credit, reduced access to information and formal extension, and time pressures from multiple domestic and productive demands on their time. We undertake an extensive policy review of India’s agriculture and climate policies and program, and supplement that with a series of focus group discussions with women and men farmers in Gujarat to discuss constraints and potential entry points for better reaching women farmers with climate smart agriculture practices. Village cooperatives and self-help groups can be key intermediary organizations that can support women’s access at the local, state and country level.

Climate-smart agriculture and forestry: maintaining plant productivity in a changing world while minimizing production system effects on climate.

Calls to boost agricultural production in order to meet the demands of a growing global population are now commonplace. Yet, depending on where productivity changes and population growth occur, international trade could be increasingly necessary in the transfer of food from farms to consumers. Fader et al (2013) offer a nuanced view of this spatial disconnect and its food security implications by considering a valuable thought experiment: what countries could foreseeably meet their food requirements from internal production alone circa 2000 and for contrasting scenarios in 2050? They investigate the extent to which available renewable water and land resources constrain domestic per capita crop production, assuming current as well as broadly improved yields. The findings convey an intuitive, though often overlooked, point that population growth is likely to increase the reliance of certain regions on food imports unless substantial productivity improvements are realized.

FACE‐ing the facts: inconsistencies and interdependence among field, chamber and modeling studies of elevated [CO₂] impacts on crop yield and food supply

There is a need to delineate vulnerable regions and identify suitable adaptation and mitigation strategies to sustain agricultural productivity under global climate change and frequently occurring extreme climatic events. Agricultural productivity can be affected by climate change, directly, due to changes in temperature, precipitation or CO 2 levels, and indirectly, through changes in soil health (physical, chemical and biological), distribution and frequency of infestation by insects/pests. Field/control chamber-based multidisciplinary research results, covering soil-water-plant-insects-pests and atmospheric continuum processes, were used to develop dynamic/mechanistic crop growth models. These models, after thorough validation (namely WTGROWS, INFOCROP and DSSAT), have been successfully used for evaluating soil and crop processes in relation to climate change. Using these models, differential response of reduced crop yields to rising temperatures was noticed at locations. Interaction of delta change in CO 2 and temperature was significant, as noticed through growth and yield response of crops. Simulation using the WTGROWS model indicated that optimal sowing date in wheat advanced by 5-8 days per degree rise in temperature (adaptation strategy). The impact in crops was more pronounced in relatively warmer regions, which became highly adverse under limited supply of water and nutrients. Shifts in the productivity centres northward for major crops, in relation to temperature rise and enhanced CO 2 concentration, were noticed. Using WTGROWS and DSSAT, the impact of aerosol was evaluated on rice, wheat and sugarcane, and radiation reduction was compensated with the enhancement in duration of the crops due to cooling and marginal reduction in yield of crops was noticed. The crop-pest-weather interaction and socioeconomic components in the climate change impact evaluation are relatively weaker in the present models. In INFOCROP, insect-pest subroutine has been addressed and successfully used for climate change studies. There is a need to develop simulation models/life-cycle assessment methodology by integrating the multiwater/ nutrients interaction for realistic estimate of growth and yield of crops, in designing appropriate nutrient management strategies, in evaluating the environmental impacts and also in developing green crop nutrition products. Most of the climate change studies in the past are point based, extrapolated empirically for assessing the regional impacts of climate change. There is a need to evolve methodology for integrating relational layers of biophysical and socioeconomic inputs, along with climate change scenarios and crop simulation tools for region wise estimates of the impacts on agriculture, including vulnerability, mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Managing food safety risks associated with climate change and agriculture necessitates comprehensive policy strategies to safeguard public health, ensure food security, and sustain agricultural productivity. This review delves into the multifaceted challenges posed by climate change on food safety and explores policy approaches aimed at mitigating these risks. Climate change presents a myriad of challenges to food safety, including altered patterns of precipitation, temperature extremes, and increased occurrences of extreme weather events. These changes impact various stages of the food supply chain, from production to consumption, exacerbating existing food safety risks and introducing new ones. Addressing these challenges requires proactive policy strategies that integrate climate adaptation and food safety management. Policy strategies for managing food safety risks associated with climate change encompass a range of measures aimed at enhancing resilience, promoting sustainable agricultural practices, and strengthening food safety systems. One key approach involves the implementation of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practices, which aim to improve agricultural productivity while minimizing environmental impacts and enhancing resilience to climate change. CSA practices such as crop diversification, soil conservation, and water management can help mitigate the impacts of climate change on food safety by reducing the risk of contamination and enhancing the quality of agricultural products. Furthermore, policies aimed at promoting sustainable food production systems can contribute to mitigating food safety risks associated with climate change. These policies may include incentives for farmers to adopt sustainable farming practices, support for organic farming, and regulations to reduce the use of chemical inputs in agriculture. By promoting environmentally friendly farming practices, such policies can help minimize the occurrence of foodborne pathogens and chemical contaminants in food products, thereby enhancing food safety. In addition to promoting sustainable agricultural practices, policy strategies for managing food safety risks associated with climate change also focus on strengthening food safety systems and enhancing surveillance and monitoring mechanisms. This includes investing in infrastructure and capacity building to improve food safety testing and inspection capabilities, as well as enhancing early warning systems for foodborne disease outbreaks. By strengthening food safety systems, policymakers can better detect and respond to emerging food safety risks exacerbated by climate change, thereby reducing the likelihood of foodborne illness and protecting public health. Furthermore, international collaboration and knowledge sharing are essential components of effective policy strategies for managing food safety risks associated with climate change. Given the global nature of both climate change and the food supply chain, coordinated action at the international level is crucial for addressing shared challenges and exchanging best practices. International organizations such as the World Health Organization (WHO), the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), and the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) play a critical role in facilitating collaboration and providing technical assistance to countries in developing and implementing effective food safety policies in the context of climate change. Managing food safety risks associated with climate change and agriculture requires a multifaceted approach that integrates climate adaptation, sustainable agriculture, and robust food safety systems. By implementing proactive policy strategies that promote sustainable practices, strengthen food safety systems, and foster international collaboration, policymakers can mitigate the impacts of climate change on food safety and ensure the availability of safe and nutritious food for all.

Cotton is the second largest crop of Pakistan in terms of area after wheat and is being suffered by multiple shocks over the time due to conventional agricultural management practices, climate change, and market failures. Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) was introduced by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) in 2010, as an innovative cleaner production alternative to conventional farming that aimed at increasing the efficiency of natural resources, resilience, and productivity of agricultural production system, while reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The adverse effects of climate change on cotton production at the farm and regional level can be minimized by using CSA practices and technologies. The present study investigated the financial performance and explored the impact of CSA through sustainable water use management on cotton production in Lower Bari Doab Canal (LBDC) irrigation system of Punjab, Pakistan by using Cobb-Douglas production function. The adopters of CSA in cotton cultivation were identified by conducting six focus group discussions. Data were collected through well-structured questionnaire from 133 adopters of CSA and 65 conventional cotton growers for the cropping season 2016–2017. It was found that water-smart (raising crops on bed, laser land levelling, conjunctive use of water and drainage management), energy-smart (minimum tillage), carbon-smart (less use of chemicals) and knowledge-smart (crop rotation and improved varieties i.e., tolerant to drought, flood and heat/cold stresses) practices and technologies of CSA were adopted by the cotton farmers in the study area. Most of the farmers were of the view that they are adopting CSA practices and technologies due to the limited supply of canal water, climate change, drought-prone, massive groundwater extraction, rapidly declining groundwater table and increasing soil salinity over the time. Results revealed that uniform germination, higher yield and financial returns, the concentration of inputs and increase in resource use efficiency are the main advantages of CSA. The econometric analysis showed that implementation of CSA practices and technologies as judicious use of water and fertilizer, groundwater quality, access to extension services, and appropriate method and time of picking have a significant impact on the gross value of cotton product (GVP). The findings of the study would be helpful for policy makers to formulate policies that can minimize farmer’s financial burden to adopt CSA technologies and implement for scaling out in Punjab and beyond.

Abstract: This research was conducted to analyze the implications of implementing a sustainable agricultural transfer policy using the Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) approach in an effort to overcome the impacts of climate change in North Aceh Regency. This is motivated by the increasingly real and serious impact of climate change on the agricultural sector, which threatens food security and farmers' welfare, so the CSA approach is adopted to increase agricultural productivity in a sustainable manner, increase farmers' resilience to climate change, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The aim of this research is to evaluate how the internalization of CSA policies can strengthen sustainable agricultural policies in North Aceh and identify the challenges and opportunities faced in implementing these policies. This research uses a qualitative method with a case study approach. Data collection was carried out through in-depth interviews with 12 informants consisting of government officials, village officials and farming communities. Informants were selected purposively to ensure they had knowledge and experience relevant to the research topic. The research results show that the North Aceh government has succeeded in transferring adaptive policies through collaboration with various stakeholders such as the Agriculture Service, the Environment Service, and farmer groups. However, the success of this policy is still faced with challenges such as limited infrastructure, local institutional capacity, and low awareness of farmers regarding the importance of sustainable agricultural practices. Overall, the internalization of CSA in North Aceh shows great potential in increasing agricultural resilience to climate change, although further efforts are needed to overcome existing obstacles Abstrak: Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk menganalisis implikasi penerapan policy transfer pertanian berkelanjutan melalui pendekatan Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) dalam upaya mengatasi dampak perubahan iklim di Kabupaten Aceh Utara. Hal ini dilatarbelakangi semakin nyata dan seriusnya dampak perubahan iklim terhadap sektor pertanian, yang mengancam ketahanan pangan dan kesejahteraan petani, sehingga pendekatan CSA diadopsi untuk meningkatkan produktivitas pertanian secara berkelanjutan, meningkatkan ketahanan petani terhadap perubahan iklim, serta mengurangi emisi gas rumah kaca. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengevaluasi bagaimana internalisasi kebijakan CSA dapat memperkuat kebijakan pertanian berkelanjutan di Aceh Utara dan mengidentifikasi tantangan serta peluang yang dihadapi dalam penerapan kebijakan tersebut. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode kualitatif dengan pendekatan studi kasus. Pengumpulan data dilakukan melalui wawancara mendalam dengan 12 informan yang terdiri dari pejabat pemerintah, aparatur desa, dan masyarakat tani. Informan dipilih secara purposive untuk memastikan mereka memiliki pengetahuan dan pengalaman yang relevan dengan topik penelitian. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pemerintah Aceh Utara telah berhasil melakukan transfer kebijakan yang adaptif melalui kerjasama dengan berbagai pemangku kepentingan seperti Dinas Pertanian, Dinas Lingkungan Hidup, dan kelompok tani. Namun, keberhasilan kebijakan ini masih dihadapkan pada tantangan seperti keterbatasan infrastruktur, kapasitas institusi lokal, serta rendahnya kesadaran petani mengenai pentingnya praktik pertanian berkelanjutan. Secara keseluruhan, internalisasi CSA di Aceh Utara menunjukkan potensi besar dalam meningkatkan ketahanan pertanian terhadap perubahan iklim, meskipun diperlukan upaya lebih lanjut untuk mengatasi berbagai hambatan yang ada

Global food price shocks (volatility) is an important issue of national and international concern that is attracting debates among development economist; yet is understudied. This study analyzed the effects of global food price shocks on the supply response of Nigerian maize, rice, and wheat. Monthly time-series data from 1981–2023 were collected and analyzed for the study. A weighted FAO-based global food price index was constructed, while Johansen cointegration, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) techniques were employed. The results showed that all variables were integrated of order one and cointegrated, confirming stable long-run relationships. In the short run, global food price shocks significantly increased farmers’ supply response (β = 0.165, p < 0.01), while farm size also had a positive effect (β = 0.119, p < 0.01); the error correction term (−0.487, p < 0.01) indicated that about 49% of disequilibrium was corrected within one period. In the long run, global food price shocks positively affected output of maize (β = 0.165), rice (β = 0.129), and wheat (β = 0.077), whereas rainfall and temperature exerted negative and significant effects across all crops. The study recommended strengthening climate-resilient agricultural investments to complement price-based incentives and enhance staple food production in Nigeria.