Climate change and agriculture in the Sudan: Impact pathways beyond changes in mean rainfall and temperature

Abstract

Sudan is a country with a predominantly rainfed agriculture which is a major contributor to GDP, foreign exchange earnings, and livelihoods. However, with current and projected environmental changes on the horizon there is an urgent need to measure and analyze the impact of these changes. This study analyzes the economy-wide impacts of climate change and consults national policy plans, strategies, and environmental assessments to identify interventions for mitigating the effects. We feed climate forcing data, projected water demand, and macro-socioeconomic trends into a modeling suite, which includes models for global hydrology, river basin management, water stress, and crop growth. This modeling suite provides us with annual crop yields and global food prices under various climate change scenarios until 2050. The effects from climate change are assessed by using a single country dynamic CGE model for the Sudan. Additionally, we introduce yield variability into the CGE model based on stochastic shocks of crop yields until 2050. The results reveal that extreme negative variability could cost the Sudan cumulatively US$ 105.5 billion in GDP between 2018 and 2050 compared to a baseline scenario without climate change.