Abstract
BackgroundEcological succession drives large-scale changes in ecosystem composition over time, but the mechanisms whereby climatic change might alter succession remain unresolved. Here, we asked if the effects of atmospheric and climatic change would alter tree seedling emergence and establishment in an old-field ecosystem, recognizing that small shifts in rates of seedling emergence and establishment of different species may have long-term repercussions on the transition of fields to forests in the future.Methodology/Principal FindingsWe introduced seeds from three early successional tree species into constructed old-field plant communities that had been subjected for 4 years to altered temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 regimes in an experimental facility. Our experiment revealed that different combinations of atmospheric CO2 concentration, air temperature, and soil moisture altered seedling emergence and establishment. Treatments directly and indirectly affected soil moisture, which was the best predictor of seedling establishment, though treatment effects differed among species.ConclusionsThe observed impacts, coupled with variations in the timing of seed arrival, are demonstrated as predictors of seedling emergence and establishment in ecosystems under global change.
Highlights
Predicting the response of ecosystems — especially ecosystems in transition — to projected climatic change is a compelling but formidable challenge
Some models predict and research support that global change driven changes in plant community composition may be more important to regional terrestrial productivity and its feedback to the climate than will physiological responses of individual plant taxa [1,2,3]
These interactions are further complicated by the indirect impacts of atmospheric and climatic change via shifts in plant community composition, which can result from changes in individual plant function or from changes in individual plant distribution [20,21]
Summary
Predicting the response of ecosystems — especially ecosystems in transition — to projected climatic change is a compelling but formidable challenge. Succession from abandoned agricultural and grassland ecosystems to forested ecosystems represents a key transition in ecosystem structure and function, and these transitions have the potential to generate large carbon sinks [7,8]. Climatic change, such as warming and altered precipitation regimes, is causing shifts in species distributions [9,10] and phenologies [11]. These changes can alter forest composition; for example, warming could increase the growth rate of established individuals or select for warmadapted species. We asked if the effects of atmospheric and climatic change would alter tree seedling emergence and establishment in an old-field ecosystem, recognizing that small shifts in rates of seedling emergence and establishment of different species may have long-term repercussions on the transition of fields to forests in the future
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