Abstract
While Black Sigatoka Leaf Disease (Mycosphaerella fijiensis) has arguably been the most important pathogen affecting the banana industry over the past 50 years, there are no quantitative estimates of what risk factors determine its spread across the globe, nor how its spread has affected banana producing countries. This study empirically models the disease spread across and its impact within countries using historical spread timelines, biophysical models, local climate data, and country level agricultural data. To model the global spread a empirical hazard model is employed. The results show that the most important factor affecting first time infection of a country is the extent of their agricultural imports, having increased first time disease incidence by 69% points. In contrast, long distance dispersal due to climatic factors only raised this probability by 0.8% points. The impact of disease diffusion within countries once they are infected is modelled using a panel regression estimator. Findings indicate that under the right climate conditions the impact of Black Sigatoka Leaf Disease can be substantial, currently resulting in an average 3% reduction in global annual production, i.e., a loss of yearly revenue of about USD 1.6 billion.
Highlights
While early farming hunter-gatherers were probably aware of the existence of fungal crop diseases and their potential impact, given that they depended on a local natural, often diverse, population of plants, the range for gathering was likely extended and any impact was minimized (Agrios [1]and Scheffer [2])
The analysis demonstrates that once countries are infected, climatic conditions conducive to the local diffusion of Black Sigatoka Leaf Disease (BSLD) can cause considerable losses, currently on average about a 2–3% reduction in global banana production
The percentage of banana producing countries infected with BSLD is depicted in Figure 2 over the sample period of the analysis (1961–2016)
Summary
While early farming hunter-gatherers were probably aware of the existence of fungal crop diseases and their potential impact, given that they depended on a local natural, often diverse, population of plants, the range for gathering was likely extended and any impact was minimized (Agrios [1]and Scheffer [2]). While early farming hunter-gatherers were probably aware of the existence of fungal crop diseases and their potential impact, given that they depended on a local natural, often diverse, population of plants, the range for gathering was likely extended and any impact was minimized Modern globalization and specialization of agricultural production in the 19th century further encouraged the focus on fewer crop varieties, leading to further susceptibility to crop diseases. With the agricultural green revolution in the 1960s, which involved breeding and encouraging specific varieties that had higher yield potential, monocropping became firmly established across the globe (Hunter et al [6])
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