Ciklus monetarne politike u Bosni i Hercegovini

The aim of this paper is to analyse the influence of monetary aggregate on economic indicators in the Eurozone. Cointegration, this selected indicator monetary aggregate M3, is demonstrated in relation to the development of Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), gross domestic product (GDP), commodity prices and credits using Granger causality. Quarterly data between the years 1996 and 2017 are included in the analysis. Because we did not confirm the long-term relationship of the selected indicators, we continue with Granger causality. We found causal relationships between monetary aggregate M3 and GDP, HICP, commodity prices and credits. In all cases, the selected indicators have the opposite effect in Granger causality too. We also cannot definitely evaluate the effectiveness of the European Central Bank’s monetary policy and cannot confirm the use of monetary aggregate M3 as an economic indicator of future economic development in the Eurozone.Keywords: Eurozone, GDP, Granger causality, HICP, M3, monetary aggregate.

Composite Indicators for Monetary Analysis

Целью работы является вывод дифференциального уравнения, определяющего прирост денежного агрегата М2 в зависимости от изменения возобновляемых факторов производства и ВВП. В качестве возобновляемых факторов рассмотрены физический и человеческий капитал, а также трудовые ресурсы. Основным уравнением в исследовании берется уравнение обмена количественной теории денег. Опираясь на аппарат векторного анализа, получено уравнение скорости изменения денежного агрегата М2. Предполагается, что скорость обращения денег постоянна на заданных участках времени, но наличие вихревых составляющих в изменении факторов производства не исключается. Такие перекосы могут возникать, например, при дисбалансе инвестирования в возобновляемые факторы. Показано, что прирост денежного агрегата зависит от предельных значений производительности труда, предельной фондоотдачи, предельной производительности человеческого капитала, прироста ВВП и прироста основных возобновляемых факторов производства. Проведено численное моделирование изменения денежного агрегата М2 в условных единицах в период 2003— 2018 гг. Аналитическое представление отражает общие тенденции изменения, но в настоящее время о реальном сравнении речи идти не может. Это связано с необходимостью более точного определения вклада человеческого капитала в ВВП, но таких данных нет. Конечно-разностный аналог уравнения может быть одним из инструментов при прогнозировании денежного агрегата в краткосрочной перспективе. Получено дифференциальное уравнение, которое дает общее аналитическое представление о всевозможных вариантах поведения инфляции. Найдены условия в виде неравенств, позволяющих найти ограничение на массу денег, критическую для появления гиперинфляции. The aim of the work is to derive a differential equation that determines the growth of the monetary aggregate M2 depending on renewable factors of production and GDP. Physical and human capital, as well as labor resources, is considered among renewable factors. The basic equation in the study is the equation of exchange of the quantitative theory of money. The equation of the rate of change of the monetary aggregate M2 is obtained, based on the apparatus of vector analysis. It is assumed that the rate of circulation of money is constant at given time intervals, but the presence of vortex components in the change in factors of production is not excluded. Such imbalances can arise, for example, with imbalances in investment in renewable factors. It is shown that the growth of the monetary aggregate depends on the marginal values of labor productivity, marginal capital return, marginal productivity of human capital, GDP growth and growth of the main renewable factors of production. Numerical modeling of the change in the monetary aggregate M2 in conventional units from 2003 to 2018 was carried out. Analytical calculations reflect the general trends of change, but at present, a real comparison is out of the question. This is due to the need to more accurately determine the contribution of human capital to GDP, but there are no such data. The finite-difference analogue of the equation can be one of the tools in forecasting the monetary aggregate in the short term. A differential equation is obtained, which gives a general analytical idea of all possible variants of inflation behavior. Conditions are found in the form of inequalities that allow us to find a limit on the supply of money that is critical for the hyperinflation occurrence.

The historical evidence suggests a high correlation between changes in the stock of money per unit of output and changes in prices in the same direction. The goal of this paper is to analyze the correlation between the monetary aggregates and the price stability before, during and after the financial and debt crisis in the European Monetary Union. For this purpose, firstly, the paper includes some basic theoretical aspects, secondly, practical analysis based on the Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient as a degree of the dependence between the monetary aggregate M3 and the harmonized index of consumer prices. The main task of the present paper is, accordingly, to consider, if there is any relationship between these variables, and whether there is any substantial reason for modifying the current mainstream mode of the policy analysis. The data were obtained from the data warehouses of the European Central Bank and the Statistical Office of the European Community (Eurostat). The obtained data were split up into 4 segments by the timetable of the period before the crisis, during the first and the second stage of the crisis and after the crisis. The base for the analysis was the quantitative theory of money, which states that money supply has the direct, proportional relationship with the price level. In general, we were able to identify the existence of very strong dependency between the content of monetary aggregate M3 and the price level measured by HICP, especially in the case when the data were not influenced by the seasonal aspects and within the delay of one month. It means that the transmission of monetary policy of ECB reacted relatively fast. On the other hand, the rapidity of transmission of monetary policy and its effectiveness is still not at the same level as it was in the period before the crisis and the influence of the crisis is still strongly visible.

The paper analyses a relationship between monetary aggregate M2 and inflation in a small open economy. The relationship between monetary expansion and inflation as well as a dynamic of income velocity of money framework in a small open economy are discussed in more details in the paper. Authors have developed a medium-term structural model using for an empirical verification of the relationship between monetary aggregate M2 and price development in tradable and non-tradable goods and services in the Czech Republic in the period 1996-2004. The empirical results of the model indicate that money has a significant impact on the price development of non-tradables. On the other hand, a statistically significant relationship between money and tradables inflation in the case of the Czech small open economy is not found. The conclusions presented in the paper suggest that the monetary aggregate should not be ignored in practical policy-making.

PurposeThis paper aims to study, by means of an empirical approach, how monetary policy might affect the distribution of individual income.Design/methodology/approachAfter describing the channels through which monetary policy could impinge on income distribution, the authors carry out a panel analysis of 62 countries that control their monetary policy for the period 1996–2015.FindingsUsing two possible proxy variables for monetary policy (the monetary aggregate M3 and the real interest rates), the results reveal a significant positive relationship between real interest rates and income inequality measured through the market Gini coefficient and polarization ratios. The findings suggest that central bankers should be more aware of the redistributive effects of monetary policy.Research limitations/implicationsIt should be mentioned the major challenge of data limitation in the empirical investigation on the relationship between monetary policies and inequalities.Practical implicationsThe empirical evidence presented in this paper supports the premise that central bankers should not ignore the unintended redistributive consequences of their actions. In this regard, it is worth noting that if, in addition to price stability, central banks are also responsible for financial stability; the rationale behind central bank independence needs to be reconsidered.Originality/valueAn outstanding feature of the paper is its sample size and the variety of countries included in the sample, which includes countries from all continents and with very different levels of economic development. Also, unlike papers based on forecasting modeling – e.g. Vector autoregression (VAR) or Structural vector autoregression (SVAR) models, the study follows an explanatory approach, including not only monetary variables, but also a series of regressors that may have a meaningful and significant impact on inequality, according to a wide literature.

This section conducts an estimate of the impulse response function of key macroeconomic variables to monetary policy shocks in Russia. The estimates are carried out through a dynamic factor model (DFM) of the Russian economy with structural identification of shocks by imposing various sets of sign restrictions on the behavior of endogenous variables. We restricted first the monetary aggregate M2 only (a decrease in response to an increase of the Key rate), and then—simultaneously—M2, real effective exchange rate (an increase), and GDP (a decrease). We estimated the DFM using a large dataset of 58 macroeconomic and financial variables. The estimation results suggest that there is no decreasing response of consumer prices to an exogenous tightening of the interest rate policy of the Central Bank of Russia. This empirical evidence is supported implicitly by DFM-based predictions that under the imposition of such a decreasing response as an identifying restriction to the model, a positive interest rate shock is not transmitted through the interest rate channel of monetary policy to expected increases of the interest rates on commercial loans and private deposits. However, existing empirical evidence refutes this model-based result. Therefore, this study supports the view according to which a tightening of monetary policy in Russia is inefficient in terms of restraining inflation. In addition, monetary policy shocks negatively affect investments, retail sales, export and import, real wages, and employment. Different economic activities react differently to monetary policy shocks: export-oriented activities are not sensitive to these shocks, whereas domestic pro-cyclical activities (e.g. construction) can be substantially depressed in response to unexpected increases of interest rates. Finally, the expectations of economic agents are also significantly affected by shocks in the interest rate policy of the Bank of Russia.

The aim of the article is to analyse the influence of monetary policy on the competitiveness of a country understood as the ability of a country to sell its goods and services on the international markets.The monetary policy is represented by the key interest rate, the monetary aggregate M3 and until December 2008 also the exchange rate SKK/EUR.The Trade Covering Ratio stands for the indicator of national competitiveness (import covered by export).We have focused on the situation in the Slovak Republic.The analysis has been split into two periods.The period of January 2004 -December 2008 is connected with the preparation of the country for the entrance into the eurozone.The second examined period of January 2009 -December 2012 is the period after the euro adoption.Applied econometric analysis using the linear regression of time series has confirmed the statistical significance of the monetary policy effect on the competitiveness.The monetary aggregate and the exchange rate were significant factors before Slovakia joined the eurozone.Considerable difference between the floating exchange rates period and the period of the Slovak membership in the ERM II was not detected by the analysis.The interest rate has become the significant monetary instrument influencing the competitiveness in the period after the euro adoption.

This document provides a new classification of 42 countries following their assignments by the subprime crisis. We classify countries based on the fluctuations of economic indicators (GDP, interest rate, inflation, monetary aggregate, unemployment and exchange rate) and according of strategies implemented to deal with adverse effects of the crises. We employ Kohonen Self-Organizing Map (SOM) which is an unsupervised neural network algorithm that projects high dimensional data. Results of SOM show the optimal map represented by 56 micro-classes (cells or neurons) and five areas of grouping countries thus defining five principal different economic situations. Classification was done by level of development, evolutions of economic indicators, and by period. Each group of countries classified in the same cell implies that these countries have suffered similar effects of the crisis on economic indicators or they have applied a same strategy to fight against the crisis. Also, the results showed that changes in GDP, exchange rate, monetary aggregate M2, and inflation are the main characteristics of classification. We define the period of the global shock as running from 2008 to early 2010, which can explain why we find stronger results than earlier papers such as Obstfeld et al. (2009, 2010) and Rose and Spiegel (2009, 2010, 2011), Frankel and Saravelos (2011, 2012), which use 2008 and 2009 data.

В статье авторы рассматривают актуальную проблему, связанную с возможностями процессов, происходящих на финансовом рынке в связи с динамическими изменениями таких показателей, как объемы государственного долга, денежный агрегат М2 и показатель ВВП. Указано на то, что на постсоветском пространстве имеется негативный опыт регулирования макроэкономических процессов, основанный на положениях экономической теории, что на практике не дало ожидаемых результатов. В частности, речь идет о том, что на постсоветском пространстве попытки регулировать объемы денежной массы с целью управления инфляцией в плане ее стабилизации зачастую приводили к прямо противоположным результатам, а именно: инфляционные процессы усиливались, при том что существенным образом возросли объемы государственного долга, что вело к нарушению макроэкономической стабильности. В этой связи решение данной проблемы определено как актуальное и определена цель данной статьи, а именно: разработка и проверка математической модели, позволяющей определять зависимость объёма денежной массы от общего государственного долга, в соответствии с параметрами его безопасного размера, с учётом динамики макроэкономических показателей, характеризующих развитие страны. Разработка данной модели нацелена на получение практических результатов, которые должны выражаться в определении конкретного коридора, определяющего параметры безопасности государственного долга, а также принятии управленческих решений по управлению долгом. Временным интервалом исследования является период экономического развития Российской Федерации с 2006 по 2021 г. Для достижения поставленной цели в работе использовался метод математического моделирования, основанный на использовании методики регрессионного анализа. На основе статистических данных за указанный период разработана математическая модель, демонстрирующая взаимосвязь (зависимость) денежного агрегата М2 и показателя, характеризующего объём государственного долга. Построенная модель отражает зависимость между данными показателями, представлена в виде функции, которая построена в результате решения дифференциального уравнения, что дает возможность определить границы безопасного объёма государственного долга России (внешнего и внутреннего) с точки зрения его воздействия на финансовую систему государства. Полученные результаты являются основанием для формирования финансово-кредитной политики России с учётом необходимости оптимизации объёма государственных заимствований. In the article, the author considers an urgent problem related to the possibilities of the processes that are taking place in the financial market in connection with dynamic changes in such indicators as the volume of public debt, the M2 monetary aggregate and the GDP indicator. It is indicated that in the post-Soviet space there is a negative experience in regulating macroeconomic processes, based on the provisions of economic theory, which in practice did not bring the expected results. In particular, we are talking about the fact that in the post-Soviet space, attempts to regulate the volume of money supply in order to manage inflation in terms of its stabilization often led to directly opposite results, namely, inflationary processes intensified, despite the fact that the volume of public debt increased significantly, which led to disrupting macroeconomic stability. In this regard, the solution to this problem is defined as relevant and the purpose of this article is to develop and verify a mathematical model that allows determining the dependence of the M2 monetary aggregate on the total public debt in accordance with the parameters of its safe size, taking into account the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators characterizing the development of the country. The development of this model is aimed at obtaining practical results, which should be expressed in finding a specific corridor that determines the parameters of public debt security, as well as managerial decision-making on debt management. The time interval from 2006 to 2021 was selected for the study, the Russian Federation was chosen as the object of the study, and the method of mathematical modeling was used based on the use of regression analysis methodology. On the basis of statistical data for the specified period a mathematical model was developed, which demonstrates the relationship (dependence) of the monetary aggregate M2 and the indicator characterizing the volume of public debt. The constructed model reflects the dependence between these indicators and is presented in the form of a function, which is built as a result of the solution of a differential equation, which makes it possible to determine the limits of the safe volume of public debt of Russia (external and internal) in terms of its impact on the financial system of the state.The obtained results are the basis for the formation of the financial and credit policy of Russia.

Divisia for narrowly and broadly defined monetary aggregate of a developing country Malaysia, are constructed. Unlike the Divisia for narrowly defined monetary aggregate MI, the Divisia for broader defined monetary aggregate M2 does show significant differences in both level and growth rates that signified the degree of the important and usefulness of Divisia index in formulating the monetary policy We ascertained that there exist long-run relationships between all measures of monetary aggregates in this study with inflations. By constructing dynamic error-correction models for all the alternative measures of monetary aggregates. we performed out-of-sample forecasting for three different periods. Analysis of the forecasting statistics indicates that the Divisia monetary aggregates performed better than their simple-sum counterparts in forecasting ability. We conclude that Divisia monetary aggregate namely Divisia M2, has the best forecast ability among all. As such, Divisia M2 can serve as an excellent candidate as a target or indicator in formulating the monetary policy for Malaysia.

Purpose: The main aim is to analyze the effect of the financial system in the economic growth and if the loan impact is conditioned or not by the financial leasing threshold. Approach/Methodology/Design: The proceeding data are time series of Albania's macroeconomic indicators, from 2008 to 2020 (quarterly frequency). The dependent variable is Gross Domestic Product, threshold variable is financial leasing, and the independent variables are business and individual loans from the banking system, the rate of private loans to domestic loans, monetary aggregate M2, deposits (with and without term) of the banking system. The statistical approach is based on the generalized method of moments for endogenous and exogenous variables in the threshold model. Findings: There is a financial leasing threshold level in which financial variables of bank loans and domestic loans are related to economic growth by changing the correlation direction. Practical Implications: the article demonstrated the empirical impacts that ought to be taken into consideration by the banking sector and financial leasing institutions to make decisions for further incentives in developing financial leasing. Originality/Value: The research provides empirical results encouraging further investigations on the subject matter.

In this study we use the Bayesian VAR framework to provide an analysis of the transmission mechanism of the monetary policy. We develop a bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) model for the Romanian economy in order to identify the major shock in Romania for the last 10 years and to provide information concerning the evolution of the economy response to these shocks. That’s why, we have included in the analysis variables that emphasize the industrial production evolution, the exchange rate, the inflation, the real estate prices, the monetary aggregate M2 and the interest rate. The analysis shows important conclusions. The exchange rate remains an important mechanism that influences significantly the variables of the real economy, but the channel of the interest rate is being more and more consistent in the last years. The positive aspect that emerges from this study is related to the absence of output and price puzzle. Key words: Monetary policy transmission mechanism, bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) model, small open economy, Bayesian analysis, model comparison.

The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the monetary channel of monetary transmission in Ukraine in 2005–2021, identifies tools and mechanisms for its use, and describes the specifics of functioning in the monetary regulation of the economy in political and economic instability. It is proved that in the conditions of Ukraine the monetary channel of monetary transmis-sion plays an important role in the system of monetary regulation of the economy, and the main purpose of its use is to ensure optimal proportions between supply and demand of money and balanced money market development. It is determined that in 2005–2021 the efficiency of the monetary channel of monetary transmission in Ukraine was low, and its operation was subject to the use of mainly interest, currency and credit channels. It is substantiated that the main reasons for the inefficiency of the monetary channel of monetary transmission were the central bank's underestimation of the role of the monetary channel in the monetary regulation of the economy, unbalanced structure and dynamics of the monetary base and monetary aggregates, and low money multiplication rate. It is proved that the dynamics of monetary aggregate M3 had the most significant impact on the growth rate of real GDP in the analyzed period. It was found that the influence of the dynamics of monetary aggregates on curb-ing inflation was insignificant, which corresponds to the provisions of the theory of "money neutrality". Based on the analysis of the practice of using the monetary channel of monetary transmission, three cycles of monetary and macroeconomic dynamics are distinguished: 1) 2005–2009; 2) 2010–2015; 3) 2016–2021, their features and the nature of the relationship between the studied indicators are determined. It is proved that in the conditions of complicated economic development it is necessary to change the approaches to the mechanisms of monetary transmission monetary channel by strengthening its role in forming the main monetary proportions and increasing the coordination of monetary and fiscal policy, in particular, in issuing and trading government debt securities, public debt service and state budget deficit. It is argued that in the medium term the growth rate of the monetary base and monetary aggregates should be as consistent as possible with the dynamics of real GDP and the ability to curb inflation, and the rate of return on domestic government debt should not exceed the base interest rate. Priority measures to improve the efficiency of the monetary transmission monetary channel in Ukraine should be: strengthening the stability of the banking system, balancing the supply and demand of money, improving methods of forming the volume and structure of monetary base and monetary aggregates, and improving monetary and fiscal policy coordination. implementation by the central bank of a balanced monetary policy adequate to real economic conditions.

The presented scientific article examines the macroeconomic environment in Russia for investment and entrepreneurial activity. This macroeconomic environment consists of the following indicators: gross domestic product; consumer price index; unemployment rate; key interest rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation; USD/RUB currency pair; M2 monetary aggregate; exports, imports, trade balance. Based on the dynamics and trends of the selected macroeconomic indicators, it is established that the external environment is favorable for increasing the money supply in our country, as well as for investment and entrepreneurial activity. The expansion of the money supply in Russia is able to stimulate economic growth during the economic crisis. Therefore, the research topic is relevant. The purpose of the study is to assess the macroeconomic environment for increasing the money supply. The following scientific research methods were used: analysis, synthesis, monographic, statistical. Scientific research has shown that the trends of the presented macroeconomic indicators will positively affect the growth of the M2 monetary aggregate in Russia. The increase in the money supply in our country will ensure the fulfillment of social obligations, finance small and medium-sized businesses and large companies, support the labor market, generate consumer demand, and revive investment activity. The trends of macroeconomic indicators in Russia, which form the investment and business environment, have the following form: gross domestic product is growing; consumer price index is slowing down; the unemployment rate is decreasing; the key interest rate of the Bank of Russia is decreasing; the exchange rate of the Russian ruble is strengthening. Changes occur against the background of an increase in the money supply. An additional increase in the money supply will support the current positive trends.