China's progress toward sustainable development in pursuit of carbon neutrality: Regional differences and dynamic evolution

Abstract

China has proposed ambitious carbon neutrality targets to address the challenge of climate change and promote sustainable development despite being the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide. This study constructs an index system with six dimensions: carbon source, carbon sink, electrification, low-carbon technology, the government in action, and economic decarbonization. Furthermore, it measures the low-carbon sustainable development of China's provinces as an assessment of the progress toward carbon neutrality. The comprehensive scores show that most provinces in China have progressed in their pursuit of carbon neutrality from 2007 to 2018. However, improvements can still be made. Low-carbon technology is the advantageous for low-carbon sustainable development in the eastern region and the driving force of the catch-up effect in the central region. In addition, this study finds that the overall differences in provincial carbon neutralization scores are widening. Specifically, inter-regional differences are leading, followed by intra-regional differences. Convergence analysis also shows that the carbon neutralization scores in different provinces exhibit a non-convergence trend or even an expanding trend. A large regional imbalance exists in low-carbon sustainable development. The kernel density estimation and Markov chain state analysis show that China's provinces are moving toward carbon neutrality, and the absolute difference in carbon neutrality scores is also widening. However, a phenomenon of club convergence exists.