China’s vietnam policy: The road to normalization and prospects for the Sino-Vietnamese relationship

Abstract

Americans have both underestimated and exaggerated China’s ability to influence developments in Asia. Many saw the normalization of relations between China and Vietnam in 1991 as a sign of China’s growing regional dominance. This article reexamines the process of normalization against the background of historical twentieth-century relations in order to present a more balanced perspective of China’s Vietnam policy. The author examines China’s role at the 1954 Geneva Conference, in 1973 at the Paris Peace Talks, during the deterioration of relations in the 1970s that culminated in the Sino-Vietnamese border war of 1979, and finally, along the road to normalization. Understanding that Sino-Vietnamese cooperation depends less on China’s leverage over Vietnam than on the convergence of interests between the two countries, the author then explores the major issues in Sino-Vietnamese relations in the 1990s.