China's provincial wind power potential assessment and its potential contributions to the "dual carbon" targets.

Abstract

Wind power development is one of the important measures to achieve China's committed dual carbon targets (carbon peak before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060). This study assessed the technical and economic potential of China's onshore and offshore wind power potential through Geographic Information System (GIS) layer overlay and raster calculations. Based on the assessment, provincial contributions of wind power under the 'dual carbon' targets are also estimated. The results show that (a) the technical potential of China's wind power is 25.57PWh/year, and the economic potential is 11.69PWh/year. Fifty-six percent of the potential is located in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, and Gansu provinces, while 75% of the offshore potential is distributed over the coastal provinces (Liaoning, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong, and Shandong). (b) Ten provinces, including Anhui, Jiangxi, and Henan, have insufficient remaining economic potential. In comparison, five provinces, including Jiangxi, Henan, Hubei, Yunnan, and Ningxia, have advanced wind power development, with 2020 as the base year. (c) For carbon neutrality, China's potential contributions of wind power may need 1088-2620GW by 2060. Eight provinces can constitute 72% of the new potential contributions. China may need approximately 9.23 trillion CNY (2020 constant price) investment in wind power for the contributions.