CHINA'S ECONOMIC GROWTH, STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND THE LEWISIAN TURNING POINT

PROF. Ringrose's article is a welcome addition to the growing interest in developing a systematic approach to European history constructed from new developments in the social sciences. We find ourselves in agreement with some of his analysis. Moreover we have substantially elaborated the theory1 since we presented it in preliminary form in this journal, and we believe we can explain a number of the difficulties inherent in our first tentative presentation. We do, however, take exception to the following points in Ringrose's comment. (i) Much as we respect Prof. Slicher van Bath's pioneering study of European agrarian history, our model was neither drawn from his study nor is it essentially similar to one he employs. His model is in fact difficult to specify. The exact interaction between population, relative prices, and the absolute price level is never clearly spelled out. We, on the other hand, employ a general equilibrium model that specifies that relative prices are a function of population and invariant to the quantity of money or the absolute level of prices. Prof. van Bath considers the latter important and is interested in the absolute level of agricultural prices. We feel that it is the change in relative prices-the price of agricultural produce compared to the price of non-agricultural goods-that is important in inducing institutional change. (2) We make no apology for our assumption of economic man for two reasons. First, some assumptions are necessary for any explanation. Second, the assumption appears to be a good starting-ground since irrational and uneconomic behaviour throughout most of history doomed man to starvation and death. He could not afford the luxury of undertaking activities that made him worse off. This is increasingly true the further back in history we go since the tolerances within which man either survived or starved were much narrower than today. Furthermore, we in no way imply that our model explains all historical institutions. Clearly there were many institutions founded for non-economic reasons, and equally human behaviour was frequently motivated by other human drives. Yet it is difficult to counter the argument that those institutions, whatever their goals, that were economically most efficient survived. Few persons and no institutions ever escape the scarcity problem-all are continually faced with financial constraints. The ultimate test is whether the model we have developed

S OF DOCTORAL DISSERTATIONS THE DICHOTOMY BETWEEN MONETARY AND VALUE THEORY IN CLASSICAL AND NEOCLASSICAL ECONOMICS* CHARLES W. BAIRD University of California, Los Angeles IN 1942 Oscar Lange demonstrated that if Law is interpreted as an identity, Walras' Law implies that the excess-demand-for-money function is identically zero. If Classical and Neoclassical writers are interpreted to hold Say's any monetary theory that they may advance (e.g., the Quantity Theory) would necessarily be incorrect. Clearly the excess-demand-for-money function cannot be both nonzero and identically zero. According to Don Patinkin, even if Law is interpreted as an equilibrium condition rather than an identity, there exists an invalid dichotomy between the monetary and value theories of Classical and Neoclassical writers. If the homogeneity postulate of Classical and Neoclassical theory is interpreted to mean that changes in the money supply and/or changes in the absolute money price level exert absolutely no effect on the demand functions for goods, a logical contradiction will arise. Starting from full equilibrium, where all excess demands are zero, an increase in the nominal supply of money creates a negative excess demand for money. If the absolute price level or money balances are not arguments of at least one other excess-demand function no offsetting positive excess demand will arise and Walras' Law will be violated. My hypothesis is that a careful reading of John Stuart Mill, Alfred Marshall, Knut Wicksell, and Irving Fisher reveals that each avoided the logical traps discussed above. Patinkin is very careful not to assert that any of these authors was consistently wrong. In fact he quotes key passages in Wicksell and Fisher which indicate that they both had more than just a glimpse of the real-balance effect. However, he immediately depreciates the value of these passages by noting other passages from both which indicate that they imperfectly understood the real-balance effect. But there is no reason to expect that anyone writing before the 1942 Lange paper would have gone through the analysis of the real-balance effect to the extent that Patinkin demands-they simply had no motivation to do so. In fact, if Lange had not made the unsupported contention that the Classics held to Identity, the elaborate taxonomy of dichotomies in Patinkin's book might never have been formulated. The question addressed in the thesis is whether or not in light of the latter-day theoretical discussion the early writers had consistent models. The results of my search of the literature are as follows. Mill included monetary and nonmonetary wealth as arguments in the demand functions of the goods market. Furthermore, he correctly specified the homogeneity postulate by defining the conditions necessary for reattainment of equilibrium after an injection of new outside money. Mill's statements on the relationship between Law and Walras' Law and their implications for monetary theory are second to none in clarity and accuracy. * A dissertation completed at the University of California, Berkeley in 1968.

Summary Cities, contributing more than 75% of global carbon emissions, are at the heart of climate change mitigation. Given cities' heterogeneity, they need specific low-carbon roadmaps instead of one-size-fits-all approaches. Here, we present the most detailed and up-to-date accounts of CO2 emissions for 294 cities in China and examine the extent to which their economic growth was decoupled from emissions. Results show that from 2005 to 2015, only 11% of cities exhibited strong decoupling, whereas 65.6% showed weak decoupling, and 23.4% showed no decoupling. We attribute the economic-emission decoupling in cities to several socioeconomic factors (i.e., structure and size of the economy, emission intensity, and population size) and find that the decline in emission intensity via improvement in production and carbon efficiency (e.g., decarbonizing the energy mix via building a renewable energy system) is the most important one. The experience and status quo of carbon emissions and emission-GDP (gross domestic product) decoupling in Chinese cities may have implications for other developing economies to design low-carbon development pathways.

Agricultural, manufacturing and service sectors are major pillars of India’s economy, contributing to employment, innovation, food security and trade. The contribution of the agricultural sector to India’s GDP stands at 18.2 per cent in comparison to 17 per cent and 55 per cent of the contribution made by manufacturing and service sectors, respectively. The growth of these three sectors has driven structural changes in the Indian economy, highlighting the need to understand the contribution of each sector in economic growth in India. Moreover, early research has undermined the role of manufacturing sector as a key contributor in India’s economic growth, indicating a gap in the literature. This paper attempts to find out the key drivers of economic growth of India out of three sectors of the economy - agriculture, manufacturing and service. To achieve this objective, the study employs the ARDL bounds testing approach using annual data spanning from 1960 to 2023. In the ARDL model, real GDP is taken as the dependent variable, while the shares of agriculture, manufacturing and service sectors in GDP are considered as the main independent variables. Additionally, five control variables are used. These are: government expenditure; gross capital formation, inflation, trade openness and population growth rate. The results of the ARDL bounds test confirm the existence of a long-run relationship between India’s real GDP and the explanatory variables. The findings further reveal that gross capital formation, trade openness and government expenditure exert positive and significant impact on economic growth, whereas the population growth and inflation exert negative and significant effect on economic growth. The most notable result is that the coefficient of the service sector’s share in GDP is positive but statistically insignificant, suggesting that the service sector has reached a level of saturation and no longer serves as a major driver of India’s economic growth. In contrast, the manufacturing sector’s share in GDP shows a positive and significant impact on economic growth, indicating that manufacturing has emerged as the main engine of economic growth of India in the current context. Similarly, the impact agricultural sector’s share on economic growth is also positive and significant, highlighting its renewed importance as a growth driver, particularly in the post-COVID-19 period. Thus, the study suggests that among the three sectors of Indian economy, the effect of manufacturing sector on economic growth is the highest, therefore it can be considered as engine of economic growth of India, followed by agriculture sector. As the manufacturing sector has the major contribution in economic growth, it is recommended that the government should focus on efficiently implementing policies such as Make in India and Startup India to strengthen this sector.

Previous articleNext article No AccessGupta's Invalid Dichotomy: A CommentJohn L. ScaddingJohn L. Scadding Search for more articles by this author PDFPDF PLUS Add to favoritesDownload CitationTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints Share onFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditEmail SectionsMoreDetailsFiguresReferencesCited by Journal of Political Economy Volume 78, Number 2Mar. - Apr., 1970 Article DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1086/259638 Views: 2Total views on this site Copyright 1970 The University of ChicagoPDF download Crossref reports no articles citing this article.

This chapter addresses price level optimality, but our focus of interest is with price-level changes over time rather than with the absolute level of prices as such. The absolute level of prices is of little or no interest in itself, but price-level changes can have profound and complex consequences. Most economists believe that a continually rising price level (i.e., inflation) damages the economy and, indeed, the social order more generally, but there is much controversy over how it does so and how damaging it is. This chapter tries to address these issues and come to a judgement on what the optimal price-level path might be.KeywordsPrice LevelCapital StockInflation RateRelative PriceReal Interest RateThese keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Brexit and the Future of <scp>UK</scp> Capitalism

This paper is based on a growth model that is consistent with salient features of the recent “New Normal” growth experience in China: slowdown of growth rate, low level of inflation and unemployment, decreasing returns on capital investment, extensive reallocation among agriculture, manufacturing and modern service sectors, rising share of consumption, improvement of wealth distribution, and reduced foreign surplus. The building blocks of the theory are asymmetric technology diffusions from FDI firms among various sectors and nominal wage rigidity in the labor market. Due to the asymmetric technology diffusion among different sectors, manufacturing firms enjoy a more rapid productivity progress via the process of learning by doing in a processing on order economy. Thus manufacturing sectors serve as the engine in the past years’ economic growth in China. Through the competition in labor market, trends of wage equalization drive the migration of residents from agriculture to manufacturing and modern service sectors. Moreover, with a larger share of processing on order firms, China tends to further enlarge her foreign surplus in a faster pace. However, the result of this paper shows that since the exchange rate reform on July 21st 2005, RMB has appreciated accumulatively by 35%, combined with the wage rigidity in labor market, FDI firms in manufacturing sectors face an increasing level of cost in terms of increasing wage expenditure. Incumbent low profitable firms exit and potential entrants with new technology no more settle down. Thus, rapid productivity progress ceases in manufacturing sector. Not only the growth rate slows down, but also large number of unemployed population reallocates back to modern service and agriculture sectors. Dwindling share of manufacturing sectors reduced the foreign surplus by the drops of processing on order infra-firm trade of FDI firms.

This article provides a methodology to test absolute and relative price convergence (in mean and variance) based on a model of relative prices that includes a transition path, and offers a way to measure the speed of price convergence across countries. By applying this test to the European Monetary Union (EMU) price indices from 2001 to 2011, we find empirical evidence of different price level patterns and the lack of price level convergence in the long run for most countries. In terms of the price gap between countries, only when we compare the German with French and Italian prices, we do get zero-gap (absolute) price level convergence. A few other countries report relative price level convergence. These results underscore the existence of a “convergence cost” that EMU countries with lower price levels paid and that does not tend toward zero in the long-term in the absence of convergence. This finding might be of particular interest to European monetary policymakers as it implies that implemented monetary policy does not affect (benefit/harm) all EMU members equally. Monitoring the relative and absolute price level convergence is advised to understand the monetary policy efficiency in the long run.

This study aims to analyze the relationship between the index of corruption perceptions, exports of goods and services, and the unemployment rate on economic growth in 9 ASEAN countries. This study uses panel data from 2016-2020 in 9 ASEAN countries. The variables used are economic growth with the independent variable index of perceptions of corruption, exports of goods and services, and the unemployment rate. Based on the regression results, the corruption perception index variable has no effect on economic growth in 9 ASEAN countries. While the variable exports of goods and services have a positive and significant effect on economic growth in 9 ASEAN countries. And the unemployment rate variable has a negative and significant effect on economic growth in 9 ASEAN countries.

What can US city price data tell us about purchasing power parity?

The critical role of the state’s trade policy in the development of Ukraine's integration potential and the key role of services in international trade are emphasized. The prospects for the development of Ukraine's integration potential through the expansion of the Free Trade Agreement with the State of Israel to trade in services are highlighted. The analysis of the data taken from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine allows to consider the dynamics of exports, imports, balance of trade in goods and services between Ukraine and the State of Israel for the period of 2016 and 2021. The results show that the integration relations between the countries are strengthened primarily thanks to the exports: in 2016, the exports of goods and services – 657.0 mln USD, and in 2021 – more than 1,0 bln USD, i.e. increased 1.6 times, while the imports of goods and services in 2016 –204.4 mln USD, and in 2021 – 267.6, i.e. grew 1.3 times. In the context of the signed Free Trade Agreement, it is emphasized that the exports of goods rose by 23% in 2021, and the exports of services – by 27% compared to 2020. The balance in trade in both goods and services has been positive. The share of exports of services in all exports of goods and services of Ukraine to the State of Israel has been growing and in 2021 it reached 29% which also confirms the necessity to develop Ukraine’s integration potential by covering trade in services in the expanded FTA. The types of exported and imported services are presented. According to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the main types of services exported to Israel are the services in the sphere of telecommunications, computer and information services – 232 mln. USD, or 63%, with positive balance of 226 mln. USD and transport services – 117 mln. USD, or 32%, with positive balance of 94 mln. USD. The main types of services imported from the State of Israel are the transport services – 24 mln. USD or 59% and services in the sphere of telecommunications, computer and information services – 6.4 mln. USD or 16%. The trade in services of innovative nature are also to be covered by the FTA

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The agriculture and manufacturing sectors are the backbones of the Indonesian economy; for this reason, research on the effects of these sectors on carbon emissions is an important subject. This work adds urbanization to enrich research on the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) in Indonesia. The results of this study indicate that the EKC hypothesis was confirmed in Indonesia with a turning point of 2057.89 USD/capita. The research results show that all variables affect the escalation of greenhouse gas emissions in Indonesia. Furthermore, there is a bidirectional causality relationship between emissions with economic growth, emissions with agricultural sector, emissions with manufacturing sector, economic growth with agricultural sector, and economic growth with manufacturing. The unidirectional causality is found in emissions by urbanization and economic growth by urbanization. To reduce the impact of environmental damage caused by the activities of agriculture, manufacturing, and urbanization sectors, it is recommended that the government conduct water-efficient rice cultivation and increase the use of renewable energy.

The debt-growth nexus and debt sustainability in Nigeria: Are there reasons to be concerned?