Chile’s perfect storm: social upheaval, COVID-19 and the constitutional referendum

Abstract

ABSTRACT Why did one of Latin America’s most stable democracies experience a social upheaval that forced the political class to organise a referendum to rewrite the current constitution? To what degree did the COVID-19 pandemic influence the development of the constitutional referendum of October 2020? What institutional paths will open for Chile when the new constitution comes into force? In this article, it is suggested, first, that Chile successfully reduced poverty levels but inequality was reduced more slowly, which contributed to generating discontent with democracy. Second, that Chile has had a long-term crisis of representation, with a rigid party system which partially changed in 2017 due to the implementation of a new electoral system. Third, that in the 2020 constitutional referendum the lower-income sectors – whose COVID 19 infection rates were higher than the rest of the population – surprisingly turned out to vote in greater numbers than in previous elections. Fourth, that Chile is beginning a constitutional process blighted by uncertainty, polarisation and political instability, which will culminate only with the referendum in mid-2022 to approve or reject the new constitution.