Charting the Future of Space: A Collaborative Vision for Innovative Commercial Partnerships and Sustainable Space Exploration

The emergence of the Vision for Space Exploration (VSE) in 2004 set the U.S. space program on an exciting new path. However, sustainable human and robotic exploration in the future will depend upon our ability to realize novel systems approaches that embody several critical characteristics, including affordability, reliability, effectiveness, and flexibility. Realizing these strategic goals—particularly for ambitious lunar surface operations—will depend upon the emergence of transformational new capabilities—particularly large-scale, affordable space solar power systems. Diverse technologies must be developed if this strategic capability is to be deployed when needed in the 2015-2025 timeframe. For example, research and development in this area should include integrated development and demonstration of high-power, low-mass photovoltaic solar arrays, modular intelligent power management and distribution systems, etc.; other topics may include novel systems approaches including thermo-photovoltaic systems, solar dynamic systems, or other concepts. This paper will introduce some of the key issues associated with sustainable future space exploration, with emphasis on the potential longer-term importance of advanced space solar power (SSP) systems. The paper will also discuss at a high-level some relevant concepts and technologies that may play a role in the eventual, successful resolution of these challenges, and it will examine some of the relevant SSP concepts as they might apply to space exploration goals and objectives and will assess the pros and cons of each in terms of capabilities that enable exploration, and those that provide broader benefits to society as a result of pursuing exploration. The paper will conclude with a brief discussion of the requirements and prospects for technology flight experiments and demonstrations that might be needed to resolve some of the key questions involved.

Over the past year, a good deal of media attention has been paid to research that suggests the American public is not persuaded by the reasons the United States continues to invest in its civil space program, particularly the plans to return humans to the Moon and then to Mars as described in the Vision for Space Exploration (VSE) . The studies done by Dittmar Associates and others have found that, while the public as a whole continues to endorse NASA and to endorse human space exploration, it simultaneously questions the relevance of the national space program and the VSE. Much o f the interest in these results has focused on the particular finding that young Americans are disengaged from NASA and the VSE. As a result, there has been a good deal of discussion in public forums and in print and electronic media about how to “reach” young people - i.e., what media channels and technologies are most effective in communicating messages about NASA and the VSE, with the goal of re -engaging those in the 18 -25 (and other) age groups. This effort is laudable, and NASA is taking it seriousl y; among other things, NASA videos are now showing up on YouTube, which is wildly popular among internet users in that cohort. NASA also has allocated some resources to developing a framework for strategic communications, and to doing additional research to help guide specific message development and media use. However, discussions of how to reach young people – and everyone else - have, with just a few exceptions, missed the more important point: “What” is communicated must have value to the audience. I f it does not, then “how” it is presented will matter little in the long run. Put another way, the U.S. government is asking the American public to invest in the space program, and the public in return wants to know what its “Return on Investment” (ROI) i s, and will be, for the duration of the decades -long effort envisioned in the VSE. If this question is not answered satisfactorily, then sustaining the VSE over the next several years is in doubt. This paper revisits and updates the research done between 2004 and 2007, with new findings that clarify the issues of relevance and value. It explores implications of the results for strategic communications planning, as well as for program development and the incorporation and communication of value to America n policy makers and the public.

The Vision for Space Exploration is built on a number of underlying considerations designed to safeguard the viability and acceptance of space exploration activities over many years. These considerations include sustainability and affordability, two aspects closely inter related, and influential in decisions concerning infrastructure architecture and mission design. One way of assuring sustainability and affordability is to involve several stakeholders in the program. Traditionally, stakeholders in space programs are space agencies, but space agencies cannot always keep in step with each other, reflecting, as they must local political priorities. However the space industry has now matured to the point where the benefits of international industrial cooperation offer economic justification for crossing the traditional borders recognized by space agencies. Industrial cooperation enables companies with common goals to exploit the best available resources and assets, and to work together to provide an evolving infrastructure of s pace transportation and habitation able to support progressively ambitious missions of exploration. Business -to -business decision -making can cut through lengthy deliberations at Agency level, contributing to program affordability and sustainability. Lockhe ed Martin and EADS -ST will present the current status of their achievements, and their proposals for continuing an affordable and sustainable space exploration program based on international industrial cooperation. I. Introduction HE Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company and EADS SPACE Transportation (EADS -ST) are cooperating in the Vision for Space Exploration. The teaming of these two premier aerospace companies reaches across two continents and allows Lockheed Martin and EADS -ST to combine their si gnificant strengths and decades of experience and expertise in large, complex systems integration, innovation and advanced technology development, and operational reliability and performance – all of which are vital to helping NASA achieve its goal of demo nstrating a new CEV by 2008 and operational capability by 2014. Beginning with the participation of EADS ST as a subcontractor to Lockheed Martin in the Concept Exploration and Refinement (CE&R) study managed by NASA's Exploration Systems Mission Directora te, EADS -ST will support Lockheed Martin by providing independent insights into potential concepts for exploration architecture and crew exploration vehicles. In addition, EADS -ST will carry out a survey of the European industrial complex. Another benefit of industrial cooperation is that cost effective solutions to problems in the area of space transportation can benefit programs not otherwise connected. For example, the need to support the International Space Station after space shuttle retirement will pr omote innovative, commercial solutions, which in turn will support the evolving needs of robotic exploration and human transportation to the moon and beyond. Sustained cooperation between Lockheed Martin and EADS -ST on Space Exploration programs will be de pendant upon a value added arrangement that proves itself out over the course of the program. Such cooperation is indeed consistent with The Vision for Space Exploration. Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company, headquartered near Denver, Colo., is one of t he major operating units of Lockheed Martin Corporation. Space Systems Company designs, develops, tests and manufactures a variety of advanced technology systems for space and defense. Chief products include space launch systems, defense systems, interpla netary and science spacecraft, spacecraft for commercial and government customers, fleet ballistic missiles and missile defense systems. Headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland, Lockheed Martin employs about

NASA has a new vision for space exploration in the 21st Century encompassing a broad range of human and robotic missions including missions to Moon, Mars and beyond. Exposure from the hazards of severe space radiation in deep space long duration missions is a critical design driver. Thus, protection from the hazards of severe space radiation is of paramount importance for the new vision. Accurate risk assessments critically depend on the accuracy of the input information about the interaction of ions with materials, electronics and tissues. A huge amount of essential experimental information of nuclear data for all the ions in space, across the periodic table, for a wide range of energies of several (up to a trillion) orders of magnitude are needed for the radiation protection engineering for space missions that is simply not available (due to the high costs) and probably never will be. One is required to know how every element (and all isotopes of each element) in the periodic table interacts and fragments on every other element in the same table as a function of kinetic energy ranging over many decades. In addition, the accuracy of the input information and database, in general and nuclear data in particular, is very critical and of paramount importance for space exposure assessments particularly in view the agency's vision for deep space exploration. As a result, very accurate and reliable analytical models/tools are needed to describe nuclear interactions that are not available so that radiation risks can be assessed and adequate shielding can be designed. State-of-the-art nuclear cross sections models have been developed at the NASA Langley Research Center. An overview of the vital role and importance of nuclear data for space missions with a couple of examples are discussed.

*† ‡ § ** Given the limited resources of future public outlays in space, long-term space activities have to be envisioned and implemented with the commercial sector in mind. It is imperative for the government to monitor the commercial marketplace of ideas as well as to fund spinoff technology development activities relevant to that marketplace. Recent examples of such emerging space companies include the birth of suborbital space tourism (Ansari X-Prize competitors), new low cost cargo launch options (SpaceX), and commercial-sector inflatable habitats (Bigelow Aerospace). These influences may have an equal, if not greater impact, upon the ultimate outcome of space exploration than any combination of NASA-specific funded technologies. Such future (and commercially-related) activities could dramatically lower the cost of developing and operating exploration assets. NASA's most recent approach for future human and robotic exploration is documented in the Vision for Space Exploration (VSE). The President’s Commission on Implementation of United States Space Exploration Policy in June 2004 stressed the imperative of commercial involvement in the VSE. A contribution by SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) to the implementation of the VSE is the Economic Development of Space (EDS): Examination and Simulation project. Begun in April of 2005, this project is funded by NASA's Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) for the Exploration Systems Research and Technology (ESR&T) office at NASA Headquarters. The EDS project’s aim is to examine NASA's utilization of commercial sector assets and evaluate what changes are needed to NASA requirements to promote the commercial development of space. The EDS project involves workshops attended by relevant thought leaders to address both the potential services that can legitimately be provided by the commercial marketplace and the spin-offs from government exploration missions that could be utilized by the private sector. This project also involves the development and application of the Nodal Economic Space Commerce (NESC) model, an agent-based market simulation of various future space markets (suborbital space tourism, ISS crew/cargo re-supply, space resources, etc.) and the resultant financial case of entities that undertake these projects. The NESC model includes logic for dynamic modeling of interactions within marketplaces including between competitors, different types of market conditions (duopoly, pure competition, etc.), and the impact of the government actions (technology investment, anchor contracts, tax credits, etc.) upon commercial entities. This paper presents an update of Phase I activity of the EDS project. Phase I examines products and services related to human and cargo presence in space such as Earth-to-orbit (ETO) transportation for crew/cargo and commercial infrastructures such as space habitats. Results are presented from the first two EDS workshops that took place in Washington, D.C. and Las Vegas, NV in calendar year 2005. A preview of the NESC model is given along with its development plan. The qualitative and quantitative assessments from the EDS project will help develop a roadmap the government can use to plan the appropriate mix of commercial acquisition and government development required to meet the goals of the VSE.

Public support is critical if the Vision for Space Exploration (VSE) is to be sustained through multiple presidential administrations. This study found that only two national space goals, planetary defense and space energy generation were consistently supported by a significant percentage of the American public. Support for both goals remained constant over the three-year period that saw the Columbia shuttle accident, human spaceflight missions by the Chinese, the development of the VSE, and the success of SpaceShipOne. It is argued that only by linking the VSE to the twin goals of planetary defense and space energy generation will it be possible to create the bipartisan support VSE needs to succeed.

Lunar and planetary surfaces are the most hostile working environments into which humans can be sent. The protective spacesuit is massive and cumbersome, with EVA mission time limited by both the suit’s resources and the astronaut’s stamina. To maintain human presence on the Moon and to expand it to Mars requires enormous investments in transportation and life support for each human. Therefore, successful and sustainable space exploration and operations must maximize the efficiency of every astronaut and keep them “as safe as reasonably achievable”. Towards this goal, tasks for which current robotic autonomy technologies are effective should be offloaded from the astronauts. However, whenever the limits of autonomy are reached, a human will need to intervene, preferably by telesupervising the robotic assets (thus reducing EVAs). Employing an effective telesupervision architecture to augment the ingenuity of a human supervisor with state-of-the-art autonomous systems results in a manifold increase in the human’s performance and a significant improvement in safety. This completely changes the risk profile of a mission, and allows astronauts to perform substantial amounts of hazardous work from a well-supplied operations base, such as an orbital station, a CEV, or a Lunar or Martian habitat. Telesupervised robotic systems have been identified as a key technology by the NASA Exploration Systems Mission Directorate, and are crucial to the success of the Vision for Space Exploration. However, very little applicable work has been done in the design of telesupervised system architectures, the appropriate mix of autonomy and remote control, and context switching between them, or in the testing and deployment of such systems. This paper focuses on the development of an advanced telesupervision system architecture that will provide a highly efficient approach to human-robot interaction while allowing very heterogeneous robotic assets to be deployed. These assets include exploration rovers and climbers; large autonomous miners and transporters; stationary ISRU processing plants, materials fabricators, and power stations; and construction and maintenance robots. We argue that for the telesupervisor to acquire the state of each varied robot and its environment involves not only telemetry and high-fidelity telepresence (including proprioceptive cues), but also a sensorial “playback” of the recent history of autonomous operation that will reveal the issues that led to the crisis that now requires assistance. Providing the framework within which this history and context are acquired and reproduced is crucial to a viable telesupervision architecture.

In January, 2004, the Bush Administration launched the Vision for Space Exploration (VSE), a bold and forward-thinking space exploration policy, directing NASA’s human spaceflight program for decades to come. To accomplish the VSE,2 NASA initiated the Constellation Program, tasked with developing a Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) and a new heavy lift cargo launch vehicle (CaLV). Unfortunately, in common with previous presidents, Bush seemed to forget his enthusiasm for the US space program almost immediately after vacating the announcement podium! The lack of follow-up to the VSE echoed the forgotten policies of President H.W. Bush, who, although more committed to the space exploration program than his son, was unable to ensure the survival of the Space Exploration Initiative (SEI), the program created during his tenure.

A new NASA approach to launch vehicle (LV) design and development is recommended, which will increase human rated LV reliability in the future. At its core, the new approach includes probabilistic modeling and simulation methods, which will enable the low design margins and large loading uncertainties inherent in LVs to be quantified and addressed, like they have not been on past LV programs. In order to implement the new approach, NASA will need to emphasize probabilistic modeling and simulation in its new Vision for Space Exploration (VSE) programs, like crew exploration vehicle (CEV), cargo launch vehicle (CaLV), and crew launch vehicle (CLV), in order to move towards more reliable systems. This will require increased investment in probabilistic modeling and simulation analysis upfront. Unfortunately, the current approach to fielding these new systems in NASA is to use heritage hardware, which inherently has unqualified low design margins and large loading uncertainties, due to the way past programs have been implemented. The current approach unmodified will result in LV systems that have the same low reliability as past fielded systems. Therefore, it is recommended that NASA increase its investment in probabilistic modeling and simulation for the new VSE programs, CEV, CLV, and CaLV. One possible solution to increasing the NASA investment in probabilistic modeling and simulation for the VSE, in times of limited budget, is to obtain support from the Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD), where the current Associate Administrator, Lisa Porter, is emphasizing probabilistic modeling and simulation. It is recommended that the ARMD probabilistic modeling and simulation expertise and Research & Technology be focused on the VSE program needs, in order to assure the development of more reliable LV systems in the future

[Abstract] The Vision for Space Exploration (VSE) called for a robust robotic and human space exploration program. Over the past year, NASA conducted the Lunar Architecture Team (LAT) study and developed a global strategy for exploration with international involvement. Despite the need for robotic precursor missions to evolve an architecture for the return to and a sustained presence on the Moon, the Lunar Precursor Robotic Program at NASA has all but disappeared in favor of a “human-only” exploration program. In September 2005, NASA selected a team led by the Marshall Space Flight Center to study the breath of robotic lander mission classes and ascertain the “sweet spot” for lander development. The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory was responsible for the lander element of the mission. The conclusion reached was to develop a medium-class lunar lander (<$500 million) to follow-up the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) launch in 2008 with a launch and landing on the Moon in 2011. Unfortunately, this project was cut in March 2007, as a “not essential” victim of NASA budget shortfalls. Thus, the series of robotic missions intended by the Administration’s VSE and LAT architecture has been reduced to a single robotic mission, LRO. Is it true that robotic precursors are “not essential,” technically and/or programmatically? This paper challenges that position and discusses how robotic precursors should be well-integrated with the Constellation program and executed within a combined program plan to provide for a successful human flight program, both technically and programmatically. The VSE was to be an incremental “Pay as You Go” but also a “Know as You Go” program, and we examine this through the framework of the formerly planned initial lunar surface precursor robotic mission.

NASA has committed to help fostering a vibrant US commercial space industry for public benefit, and to help achieve affordably and sustainable space exploration. One of NASA’s largest activities in this regard is the Commercial Orbital Transportation Services Program (COTS) where NASA plans an investment of $500M over five years, starting in 2007. The goal of the COTS program is to provide commercial transportation demonstrations of cargo, and potentially crew, to and from the International Space Station (ISS). The intent is that following successful flight demonstrations, NASA will be able to compete contracts for cargo and potentially crew transport to and from ISS. Thereby achieving this service at a much lower cost than government transportation options, and allowing significant cost savings that can then be applied to the exploration program. COTS is managed out of NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC). NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) is providing direct support to JSC for the program execution, and also technical support to its commercial partners. Currently there are two funded partner organizations selected from a national COTS competition with over 20 respondents: SpaceX and Rocket-Plane/Kistler. Both of these companies are planning major flight demonstrations for 2008, and both companies plan ISS cargo transport capabilities by 2009-2010, with crew transport to follow. This paper discusses current events and activities important to the development of the emerging commercial space industry, including the establishment of the Space Portal at NASA Ames. The Space Portal was formed to facilitate access and support for emerging and nontraditional space companies interested in working with NASA. Personnel from the Space Portal help provide the strategic and programmatic foundation for the COTS program, and currently are engaged with personnel from JSC in promoting export of the COTS approach to other program areas at NASA. Obstacles and opportunities identified for the emerging commercial space industry are discussed, as well as opportunities for exporting the COTS approach to other NASA program areas. The paper concludes with a brief historical perspective on similarities of the current emerging space industry with the emerging aviation industry a century ago. Obstacles for Space Use Figure 1 shows a principle challenge for the US space industry – the number of launches performed has declined considerably since the early years of the space program in the 1960’s and 70’s, and at this point there are more US based space companies vying business then there are launches. What has brought this about? First a number of obstacles have combined to limit the use of space including: 1) Failure of the Space Shuttle to make space access affordable and routine 2) NASA efforts to develop launch systems to replace Shuttle (e.g., NASP, RLV, X-33, X34, X-37, X-38, Gen 1-3, SLI, OSP) have constrained funds for space payloads, dampening demand 3) Business collapse of ambitious low-Earth orbiting satellite constellations in the late 1990’s (Iridium, Global-Star) seriously limited commercial investment AIAA SPACE 2007 Conference & Exposition 18 20 September 2007, Long Beach, California AIAA 2007-6154 This material is declared a work of the U.S. Government and is not subject to copyright protection in the United States.

In realizing the Vision for Space Exploration, human and robotic exploration will require efficient systems engineering processes enabled by a logistics infrastructure that can support remote expeditions out of reach of conventional supply chain capabilities. Future space missions must be able to self-sustain, self-maintain, and self-repair using only the resources they can take with them in an effort to increase the collection of knowledge about the Moon, Mars, and outlying celestial areas. Mission assurance must also be inherently and systematically flexible to respond to unforeseen opportunities for scientific discovery. Although not as isolated as future space missions, a series of recent U.S. and International field science activities and traverses across portions of the Antarctic continent demonstrate the application of principles that support national scientific objectives as well as providing useful analogies for the application of basic logistics concepts to space exploration. Using iterative processes analogous to spiral development, the U.S. annually develops and implements remote site science activities that expand the body of Antarctic knowledge on continental and global physical, ecological, biological, oceanographic and atmospheric sciences. Leading-edge scientific exploration of the Antarctic has been supported through the use of innovative logistics support solutions that initially provided improvements to existing stationary research platforms throughout the Antarctic continent, to more complete mobile solutions that expand the Antarctic research domain. Using iterative processes to advance science, the NSF annually develops and implements remote site science activities that expand the body of Antarctic knowledge on continental and global physical, ecological, biological, oceanographic and atmospheric sciences. This paper will review the fundamentals of logistical support for remote sciences in the Antarctic, their integration into expanded science observation days, and the increased availability of scientific instrumentation for data collection. A discussion of stationary and mobile field sciences, and associated logistics challenges will be related to space exploration. The paper will identify similarities between the recent traverses and space exploration, and explore how these similarities can provide a sound decision-matrix for implementing a logistics infrastructure that supports the Vision for Space Exploration.

Sustainable space exploration and its relevance to the privatization of space ventures

Toward net-zero in space exploration: A review of technological and policy pathways for sustainable space activities.

It may sound like something out of a science fiction novel, but both NASA and private space companies are seriously discussing long-term off-world habitation. Under the current 'Vision for Space Exploration', NASA plans to return astronauts to the Moon and then move on to the next challenge: Mars. 4Frontiers is a new company preparing for this challenge, developing strategies and technologies to be used in creating a permanent human presence on the red planet. While humans may not set foot on Mars for at least another decade, informative entertainment, Earth-based technology development and consultancy are the three business strategies that this company can master today. Efforts in these areas will lay the foundation needed to pursue their ultimate objective.