Charm Offensive Or 'Axis Of Evil'? An Analysis Of The Iranian Nuclear Program And American Responses

Abstract

This paper assesses the likelihood that Iran’s nuclear program poses a threat to American foreign-policy interests and the extent to which the American response has succeeded in reducing this threat. The researcher conducted this assessment using publicly available data from governmental or intergovernmental agencies such as the IAEA and the CIA, think tanks such as the Brookings Institute, and contemporary press reports. The findings indicate that Iran’s nuclear program has some military aspects, which might pose a threat to American security interests either by emboldening the Iranian leadership to engage in brinksmanship or by increasing the Israeli perception of Iran as a threat. This threat appears to be exacerbated by the failure of most American responses to reduce the threat from the nuclear program, with the partial exceptions of the sanctions regimes and cyberwarfare tactics applied to Iran. In 2009, an Iranian nuclear scientist named Shahram Amiri vanished while on a pilgrimage to Mecca, raising suspicions in the Iranian media that he had been kidnapped. They were proved partially right after Amiri turned up in Tucson claiming to be a defector. The resulting cascade of media claims and counterclaims—Amiri later claimed to have been kidnapped, while Iranian media suggested that he was a double agent-was one of many moves in a key part of American foreign policy: the shadow war over Iran’s nuclear program. The Iranian nuclear program dates back to the reign of Shah Reza Pahlavi, during the alliance between the United States and Iran. However, this program was continued well after Pahlavi’s reign and into the strongly anti-American government of the Ayatollah Khomeini. 2 In spite of Iranian claims to the contrary, international intelligence agencies therefore have long suspected that Iran’s post-Pahlavi nuclear program may have a military purpose. Consequently, the questions of greatest concern regarding Iran’s nuclear program are: 1) “Does Iran’s nuclear program pose a threat to American interests?” and 2) “What responses are most likely to have a 1 Crist, David. The Twilight War: The Secret History Of America’s Thirty-Year Conflict With Iran. 2012. Penguin. Pg.554. 2 Berman, Illan. Tehran Rising: Iran’s Challenge To The United States. 2005. Rowan & Littlefield, Oxford. Pg. 32. 3 Amano, Yuki. “IAEA Board Report.” 5 June 2013. IAEA. http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Board/2013/gov2013-27.pdf Pg. 13. 1 Menon: The Iranian Nuclear Program And American Responses, 2000-2012