Abstract
Using notification data, diffusion of pandemic human influenza A (H1N1) 2009 in Hong Kong was explored with geographic information system (GIS) methodology. Point data were displayed and then analysed with interpolation and the application of SaTScan™. Beginning from 6 initial foci, the spatial distribution has remained heterogeneous at the end of the first three months, with students functioning as the main disseminators. Our study showed that routinely collected surveillance data could be effectively used for describing the epidemic, which could support the development of interventions at local levels.
Highlights
First identified in Mexico and originating from swine host, the novel human influenza (H1N1) 2009, hereafter referred as swine flu, has rapidly swept across the world after its discovery in human populations in April 2009
Hong Kong is divided into 3 main regions – Hong Kong Island, Kowloon Peninsula and the New Territories, under which there are 18 administrative districts and 400 District Council Constituency Areas (DCCA), the latter being boundaries of subdistricts that have been created for electoral purpose, each with a population of about 17000
Diffusion can be described as “the dynamics by which a phenomenon originally located at one point becomes transferred to another.”[3]. The concept of diffusion is not restricted to public health but has been examined in social contexts, like urbanization and social movements. [4][5] In infectious disease epidemiology, diffusion is an important concept as it depicts the dynamics of the spread of the microorganism in time and space
Summary
First identified in Mexico and originating from swine host, the novel human influenza (H1N1) 2009, hereafter referred as swine flu, has rapidly swept across the world after its discovery in human populations in April 2009. In Hong Kong, the first imported swine flu case was reported on 1 May 2009. By the first week of November 2009, over 30,000 laboratory confirmed cases have been reported to the Department of Health of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government[1]. In the first two months of May and June 2009, investigation of each laboratory confirmed case was performed actively by the Department’s Centre for Health Protection (CHP). We set out to explore the diffusion pattern of swine flu by examining all reported cases in the first three months, which represents the very initial spread of the infection in the territory of Hong Kong, home to a 7 million population and gateway to mainland China. We reckon that an exploration of the routinely collected georeferenced data would allow epidemiologic pattern to be delineated, which would be of useful reference should another epidemic occur in the future
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