Characteristics and classifications of short-duration heavy precipitation in mesoscale system evolution

Abstract

<p>As the grid resolution continues to increase, it is essential to utilize more data to describe the occurrence and evolution of mesoscale system more precisely. Based on Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS), NCEP reanalysis data (FNL) is used as the background field. By improving and developing LAPS, a high spatial-temporal resolution mesoscale data is generated and a sample database is established by fusing a variety of observation data.</p><p>Moreover, the synoptic and physical variables that may affect the short- duration heavy precipitation are fully considered when establishing the diagnosis-statistical forecast model. After the calculation, three discriminant formulas of strong and weak precipitation, heavy precipitation classification <strong>I</strong> and <strong>II</strong> are obtained.</p><p>Furthermore, the grouping accuracy of the discriminant formula and <strong>T<sub>s</sub></strong> score were calculated, and after the independent sample test and typical case test, it can be concluded that these discriminant formulas can be used to distinguish strong and weak precipitation and heavy precipitation classification.</p>