Abstract
This chapter focuses on the problem of validating numerical weather prediction (NWP) fields from analyses and early forecasts. It presents a methodology to improve operational forecasts by comparing potential vorticity (PV) fields, satellite water vapor (WV) imagery, and pseudo WV images, which are synthetic products of the numerical model. WV imagery provides an opportunity to make real-time observations of the upper-level circulation of the atmosphere—it plays an essential role in the development of mid-latitude high-impact weather systems. Animating a sequence of WV emphasizes the evolution of the upper-level moisture flow therefore enabling to survey the evolution of the upper-level dynamics. Comparing the analyzed and forecast dynamic fields with the dynamics as observed in the images offers a means to control the behavior of the numeric models. PV fields and related concepts are valuable operational tools in the dynamic evaluation of model analysis and very short-range forecasts, especially in cases where cyclogenesis is likely to occur. Comparing upper-level PV fields and water vapor imagery can help to detect errors in the operational NWP models and to alert forecasters to the model shortcomings.
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