Chapter 8 - Modeling Approach

Abstract

The chapter describes a Gulf Regional Air Monitoring Program (GRAMP) developed by the US-led scientists early in the environmental crisis to monitor the concentration level of pollutants in the Gulf region. One of the tasks in the program was to develop an early warning system to protect human health. In the beginning of July 1991, a real-time prediction and early warning system was set up at the Research Institute, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals (KFUPM/RI) to warn public about high concentrations of smoke and pollutants in several areas based on short-term forecasting. From July to October 1991, KFUPM/RI supplied the Meteorological and Environmental Protection Administration (MEPA)—a national agency responsible for environmental aspects in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia—with 24, 48, and 72 hour forecasts of pollution levels in the region. In order to assess the impact on air quality due to burning oil wells in the Kuwaiti oil fields and to develop an early warning system to predict the movement of smoke, a number of available air pollution modeling packages were reviewed. Finally, two packages (one for near-field modeling and the other for regional transport modeling) were selected by the KFUPM/RI team. The chapter discusses types of models used by the scientific community worldwide to study the environmental impact of the plume emitted from the Kuwaiti oil wells within and around Kuwait, and also in the neighboring Gulf countries.