Chapter 10 - Characterizing the Extremes—Terrorists and Nation States

Abstract

This chapter focuses on nation states and terrorist organizations as they represent the high end of the cyber adversary spectrum. An attack launched by either of these entities will target critical infrastructures using methods designed to inflict maximum damage against their targeted asset. The targets of attacks launched by national states and terrorists focus on critical infrastructures such as banking and finance, electric power, transportation, telecommunications, and health and government services. A wide variety of factors influence a nation state's or terrorist's intentions and capabilities to use cyber attacks. Although a nation state might have the technical capability to wage an attack on critical infrastructures, there are many deterrents ranging from fear of escalation into conventional conflict to economic blowback that reduce their intentions to launch an attack. A terrorist organization has the intentions to launch sustained cyber attacks against critical infrastructures but does not necessarily posses the technical capacity to engage in such an attack. The chapter evaluates those decision elements that will influence terrorist and nation state cyber attack potential. The chapter looks at attractors and deterrents to attack and technical capabilities and it provides insight into how we might characterize and differentiate these two distinct high-end cyber adversaries.