Abstract

An analysis of a 40-year long wave time series was performed, along the coasts of Italy, in order to identify ongoing trends of two synthetic parameters, significant wave height (Hs) and energy period (Te), and of the wave power (P). First, wave data were deduced from the global atmospheric reanalysis ERA-INTERIM by the ECMWF and checked to verify their consistency. Then, a trend analysis was performed on mean values evaluated at annual and seasonal scales through the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test for three different significance levels equal to 90%, 95% and 99%. The obtained results could be useful for analyses linked to beach morphodynamics and on the identification of field installations of Wave Energy Converters (WECs).

Highlights

  • Nowadays, the average population density in coastal areas is about twice the world’s average, and the number of buildings and facilities close to the coastline is still increasing

  • With regard to Te, positive trends with a significance level of 99% have been detected in all the areas of the Italian Seas (Figure 1)

  • Regarding the last wave parameter involved, i.e., P, which depends on Hs and Te, the trend analysis shows a significant variability off the Italian coasts (Figure 1)

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Summary

Introduction

The average population density in coastal areas is about twice the world’s average, and the number of buildings and facilities close to the coastline is still increasing. The effects of climate change on coastal areas can be analyzed considering long-term records of sea states. These data are scarce if compared with large datasets of land variables, e.g., rainfall and temperature, regularly collected since the beginning of the past century. The results of this study evidenced a positive trend in mean wave conditions in the tropical ocean areas, and no trend or a slightly negative trend in the northern parts of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. With regard to Italy, significant wave height trends in the northern Adriatic Sea have been analyzed by Pomaro et al [5] in the period 1979–2015, evidencing a clear reduction of the highest percentile (99th) and a smaller growth of the 50th and 75th ones. In southern Italy (Calabria region) Caloiero et al [6] identified positive trends in two synthetic parameters, i.e., significant wave height and energy period

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