Changes in wet bulb globe temperature and risk to heat-related hazards in Bangladesh

Abstract

The rise in temperatures and changes in other meteorological variables have exposed millions of people to health risks in Bangladesh, a densely populated, hot, and humid country. To better assess the threats climate change poses to human health, the wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) is an important indicator of human heat stress. This study utilized high-resolution reanalysis data from the fifth-generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF ERA5) to analyze the spatiotemporal changes in outdoor WBGT across Bangladesh from 1979 to 2021, employing Liljegren's model. The study revealed an increase in the annual average WBGT by 0.08–0.5 °C per decade throughout the country, with a more pronounced rise in the southeast and northeast regions. Additionally, the number of days with WBGT levels associated with high and extreme risks of heat-related illnesses has shown an upward trend. Specifically, during the monsoon period (June to September), there has been an increase of 2–4 days per decade, and during the pre-monsoon period (March to May), an increase of 1–3 days per decade from 1979 to 2021. Furthermore, the results indicated that the escalation in WBGT has led to a five-fold increase in affected areas and a three-fold increase in days of high and extreme heat stress during the monsoon season in recent years compared to the earlier period. Trend and relative importance analyses of various meteorological variables demonstrated that air temperature is the primary driver behind Bangladesh's rising WBGT and related health risks, followed by specific humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation.