Changes in the well-being of developed and developing countries during the period of turbulence

<span>This study sampled 403 managers from 20 Fortune 500 companies to investigate whether there is a relationship between the type of implied contracts existing in an organization and the salary increases managers receive following periods of organizational turbulence. We hypothesized that after a period of turbulence, organizations which offer relational implied contracts to their managers (compared to transactional implied contracts) would reward these managers with larger base pay increases to compensate them for their loss of job security. A competing hypothesis based on traditional economic theory was also tested. The results support our hypotheses. We also examine the relation of implied contracts with base pay, regardless of the level of organizational turbulence.</span>

An injection of energy into the early Universe on a given characteristic length scale will result in turbulent motions of the primordial plasma. We calculate the stochastic background of gravitational radiation arising from a period of cosmological turbulence, using a simple model of isotropic Kolmogoroff turbulence produced in a cosmological phase transition. The resulting gravitational radiation has a maximum amplitude comparable to the radiation background from the collision of bubbles in a first-order phase transition, but at a lower frequency. Generally, turbulence from a phase transition is less easily detected than the bubble collisions producing the turbulence, in contrast to previous estimates.

The control exerted by different intensities and temporal inputs of small-scale turbu- lence on the balance between C production and respiration in planktonic communities has been studied by means of laboratory microcosms. The different turbulence conditions modified the tempo- ral pattern of phytoplankton (chlorophyll a) and total biomass development. However, the differences between average values of total (after re-suspension) biomass were not statistically significant. Net primary production (NP) was significantly higher at intermittent turbulence (alternating turbulence and calm periods), with maxima coinciding with the turbulence periods. Respiration (R) was less sen- sitive to turbulence conditions, but on average was significantly higher under continuous turbulence. The relationships between analysed total particulate organic carbon (TPOC) and theoretical esti- mates of total organic carbon (according to the daily balance between NP and R) indicated that between 30 and 50% of NP could be released as dissolved organic carbon. The quotient between daily C production and R (indicative of auto- or heterotrophic conditions) was higher under turbu- lence conditions. Autotrophy lasted for longer periods of time under intermittent turbulence. These results confirm the importance of turbulence in the modulation of the trophic status of the system, opening new perspectives for the study of the mechanisms controlling the selection of planktonic food webs.

Frequent Turbulence? A Dynamic Copula Approach

Spillover between investor sentiment and volatility: The role of social media

The purpose of this research is to analyze the performances of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the aftermath of the recent global crisis and the new problems associated to a weak banking system. SMEs from emerging economies have experienced critical situations both in the global crisis (2008-2010), but also in the context of the European sovereign - debt crisis (2010-2012), both characterized by multiple shocks for all type of businesses. In the case of SMEs the interest is to understand the mechanisms that influence the robustness and the resilience in turbulent periods but also the way of thinking the architecture of future investment strategies in order to realize an optimal development in the wake of crises. In addition, we should mention the impact of these turbulences on the psychology of owners/ investors with a new attitude/ preference for another set of businesses, characterized by lower risk. In this case it has become essential to observe a set of basic values such as profit margin per sold item and the market share. It is essential to maintain the market share in critical and turbulent period, because it is registered a decreasing demand for products and services and, at the same time, a fluctuation of prices. In the literature it is proved that investment strategies should consider a lot of critical technical, but also non-technical elements like the impact of the retail price on the supply in the context of the dynamics of the market, the quality and the specific features of the product in the context of the technological progress, financing solutions adapted to the product/ market. The external environment after crisis is essentially changed and the way of thinking strategies is also different. To better understand this new paradigm, very important for the strategy of SMEs, a simple but efficient quantitative methodology for understanding the dynamics of investments in turbulent periods is also presented. Key words: small and medium enterprises (SMEs), investment strategy, performances and dynamics of firm, global crisis, critical and turbulent period.

Purpose This study aims to construct alternative models to establish the dynamic nexus between inflation and housing prices by estimating the short- and long-run relationship between housing prices and inflation for 15 OECD countries from 1980Q1 to 2022Q4. Furthermore, the authors examined this association using the core and headline inflation and price-income and price-rent ratios as proxies for inflation and housing prices, respectively. Design/methodology/approach The authors use the panel autoregressive distributed lag technique to examine the nexus between housing prices and inflation to capture the distinct characteristics of the sample countries, estimate various short-run and long-run dynamics cum separate analyses for turbulent and calm periods in the relationship between housing prices and inflation. Findings Changes in housing prices have a greater impact on core inflation than headline inflation. Overall, the authors establish a positive (negative) relationship between housing prices and core inflation in the long run (short run) based on alternative proxies of housing prices. However, this connection tends to be less significant for headline inflation and episodic over smaller samples, as it seems stronger during calm periods than turbulent ones. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the authors are the first to examine the association between housing prices and inflation by demonstrating how these variables behave during calm and turbulent periods.

As financial institutions are often faced with a series of turbulences that unfold in the Caribbean financial markets, frequent organisational renewal and self-regeneration become crucial for bolstering a bank's continuity and sustainability. In that context, this study uses a qualitative research method to evaluate the effectiveness of the organizational renewal strategies that are often used by Caribbean banks during periods of turbulence as well as the major impediments of such strategies. Through such analysis, the study aimed to discern the organisational renewal model that can be extracted and suggested for leveraging a bank's sustainability and continuity in the periods of discontinuities. During periods of turbulence, findings from different banks that were drawn from St. Lucia, Barbados, Bahamas, St. Vincent, Grenada and the Dominican Republic signified the organizational renewal strategies that are often used by Caribbean banks to encompass financial service innovations, digital transformation, value-based marketing and CSR-based banking model. But even if that is the case, the efficacy of some of the organisational renewal strategies to turn around the bank's performance during turbulence was still found to be undermined by the hefty costs of change that must be incurred and organisational inertia that limits the flexibility and agility required for the banks in distress to respond. To mitigate such constraints, the study suggests the Organisational Renewal and Self-Regeneration Model which the contemporary banks can adopt to bolster their adaptability, continuity and sustainability during periods of discontinuities. But even if usage of such a model will leverage a bank's sustainability and continuity amid the Caribbean financial markets' discontinuities, future studies must still explore the impact of organisational renewal on a bank's liquidity risks' mitigation during periods of turbulence.

The aim of this study is to assess and compare changes in regularity in the 36 European and the U.S. stock market indices within major turbulence periods. Two periods are investigated: the Global Financial Crisis in 2007–2009 and the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak in 2020–2021. The proposed research hypothesis states that entropy of an equity market index decreases during turbulence periods, which implies that regularity and predictability of a stock market index returns increase in such cases. To capture sequential regularity in daily time series of stock market indices, the Sample Entropy algorithm (SampEn) is used. Changes in the SampEn values before and during the particular turbulence period are estimated. The empirical findings are unambiguous and confirm no reason to reject the research hypothesis. Moreover, additional formal statistical analyses indicate that the SampEn results are similar both for developed and emerging European economies. Furthermore, the rolling-window procedure is utilized to assess the evolution of SampEn over time.

Dow Effects in Returns and in Volatility of Stock Markets during Quiet and Turbulent Times

In this study, SWAT hydrological model was used to differentiate the effects of drought and changes in land use on hydrological balance of the system in Eskandari Watershed area. To this end, The SWAT model was implemented separately using other user maps to investigate the impact of land use changes on the hydrological cycle of the watershed. Additionally, Van Loon model was used to investigate the effects of drought and water scarcity on discharge. The results showed that the watershed area could meet its environmental needs due to an 11% decrease in rainfall and droughts in 2008 and 2009. Additionally, the average monthly simulated flows were 2.4 m3/s and 2.9 m3/s in the natural and turbulent periods, respectively, indicating a decrease of nearly 18%, which is related to the 11% decrease in rainfall in this Watershed. Furthermore, the average observational flow in the turbulent period was 4mm, which showed a growth of nearly 13% in comparison to the observational flow in the turbulent period. Decreased rainfall and increased discharge in this period indicated the effect of land use change and human activities on the catchment.

Correlations betwen international equity markets are often claimed to increase during periods of high volatility. Therefore the benefits of international diversification are reduced when they are most needed, i.e. during turbulent periods. This paper investigates the relationship between international correlation and stock‐market turbulence. We estimate a multivariate Markov‐switching model, in which the correlation matrix varies across regimes. Subsequently, we test the null hypothesis that correlations are regime‐independent. Using weekly stock returns for the S&P, the DAX and the FTSE over the period 1988–99, we find that international correlations significantly increased during turbulent periods.(J.E.L.: C53, G15).

The risk spillovers from the Chinese stock market to major East Asian stock markets: A MSGARCH-EVT-copula approach

The meat supply chain (MSC) – a key constituent of the ‘Food & Agriculture’ CISA critical infrastructure sector, was among the most impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. The witnessed successive demand and supply shocks uncovered the fragility of the MSC and revealed that more attention should be given by researchers and practitioners to ensure effective planning of such a critical infrastructure sector during periods of turbulence. To that end, in this paper we propose a two-stage approach for the planning of an MSC. In the first stage, we identify the most suitable model for predicting the demand and the supply. In the second stage, a multi-period multi-product mixed integer programming (MIP) model accounting for key MSC features is devised to deal with the planning of the MSC. Furthermore, in order to validate our theoretical proposition, a case study pertaining to a real-life MSC was used during the second and first wave of COVID-19 under different conditions. In particular, the results show that accurate demand and supply forecasting, and the recourse to rolling horizon planning approach, allow for satisfying the demand and maintaining the MSC profit in periods of turbulence, and so can be considered as levers for supply chain resilience.

The article presents the results of an analysis of the work of six Russian TV channels (Channel One, Russia 1, NTV, STS, TNT, Friday!) with social media: VKontakte, Odnoklassniki, Telegram, RuTube, YouTube, and in particular the performance of Telegram accounts of the selected channels. The year 2022 brought about the biggest change in Russians’ digital habits, which cannot even be compared with the transformation of pandemic times. Two-thirds of the time Russians spent online in 2022 was spent on the largest types of activity: 21 % on social networks, 18 % on video and 15 % on messengers. The researchers attribute the redistribution of the audience share between social networks and messengers not to a decrease in one activity and growth of the other, but to a spillover between the platforms and hybrid formats. The blocking of some social networks in Russia has led to an outflow of users from these platforms. This has also been one of the growth drivers for the hybrid Telegram, which also serves as a social network. Telegram’s growth peaks are related to Russians’ logical need for news sources during a period of turbulence. A significant portion of the time users spend on the site is spent reading Telegram feeds. Despite the evidence of the growing influence of social media in Russia, traditional television remains the number one media in terms of accumulated reach. Based on an analysis of the Telegram accounts of six Russian TV channels over four random weeks in 2022 and 2023, an attempt was made to identify the changing digital content strategies of the TV channels in the face of turbulence. A sample of TV channels was selected based on average annual ratings as well as thematic segmentation. Formally, all six TV channels are now “equalized in rights” and are among the publicly available channels of the first and second multiplexes. The following parameters were analysed in each of the weeks: number of posts, comments, views, and likes. On the basis of all audience and channel activities, the Engagement Rate, a coefficient of user involvement in the published content (posts), was determined. In addition, on the basis of the entire array of material, the most popular publications were identified and the forms of presentation were analysed. The specific objectives of the study were to identify content strategies, monitor and record the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the activities of the selected television channels on the rapidly growing Telegram platform, and determine the audience response. Based on the results of the study, it is possible to identify an audience demand for news agenda, on the one hand, and for distracting content – rather than entertainment – in a period of turbulence, on the other hand. Television channels are forced to reinvent themselves in the changed social media space that they struggled to explore a few years ago. It seems that the Big Three channels are only trying to find their content strategies in Telegram, trying to copy the content strategies of other and previous social media, with NTV being the most successful. The “news” content Telegram is best suited for youth entertainment channels – TNT, STS, Friday! They successfully adapt interactive forms developed on other networks and use content created for other networks.