Changes in temperature and precipitation in the instrumental period (1951–2018) and projections up to 2100 in Podgorica (Montenegro)

Abstract

AbstractThe article presents the results of the analysis of several temperature and precipitation parameters in the instrumental period in the capital of Montenegro—Podgorica, for the period 1951–2018. In order to use the latest results of several Regional Climate Models (RCMs) developed for the Western Balkans, the results of temperature and precipitation modelling for the period 2011–2100, ALADIN, HIRHAM i RACMO models for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, are also presented. For the observed 68‐year period (1951–2018), the trend calculations clearly show that the temperature is rising. This is indicated by all the analysed temperature parameters (TY, TW, TSp, TSu, TA, TYx, TYn, FD, ID, SU, TD, TR, T35+ and T40+). Although seasonal and annual precipitation totals do not show significant changes in the instrumental period, Podgorica's climate has become more arid and extreme, as the number of days with precipitation ≥1 mm (R1) has significantly decreased. Conversly, the number of days with precipitation has increased ≥40 and 50 mm (R40 and R50). The projected changes in the considered precipitation parameters are in most cases insignificant. The obtained results indicate that there is a high agreement between the temperatures projections of the three models used. Concerning precipitation, it appears that their modelling is more complex, because there are visible qualitative and quantitative differences in the projections of models of future changes in seasonal and annual sums (RY, RW, RSp, RSu and RA), that is, the number of precipitation days (R0.1, R1, R10, R20, R30, R40 and R50). The projections of the used models show that in the future we can expect a warmer climate with more extremes of temperature and precipitation in the grid area to which Podgorica belongs.