Changes in age and sex ratios amongst samples of hunter-shot wings from common duck species in Denmark 1982–2010

Abstract

There are almost no long-term demographic monitoring programmes of commoner waterbird species, yet such data are fundamental to our understanding of drivers of population change. In the present study, we present annual age and sex ratios in samples of shot duck wings forwarded on a voluntary basis by hunters throughout Denmark from 1982 to 2010 for eight common quarry species. Wigeon, Shoveler, Pintail and Goldeneye showed statistically significant declines in the proportions of young birds in the samples, but only Wigeon showed a statistically significant decline in the proportion of females in the adult sample over this period. Amongst Wigeon, the proportions of first winter birds and females were lower amongst the sample shot over decoys compared with those shot without decoys, suggesting these two shooting methods differentially select for young birds and females. However, the slopes of declines in these proportions shot with and without decoys over time did not differ. We found no correlations between North Atlantic Oscillation index values and the proportions of young for any of the species or between May and June temperatures on the breeding areas of Wigeon and the proportions of young in samples derived the following winter. With the exception of Wigeon, little is known about how well the shot duck wing samples reflect the true ratios in the populations, and unravelling the error and bias associated with these samples remains a high future research priority. If long-term declines in age and sex ratio in the wing surveys reflect true trends in the Wigeon population as a whole, we have strong grounds for concern for this population, and effort should be invested in increased demographic surveillance to better understand the causes of these changes. We need improved methods to derive unbiased measures of annual breeding of our common duck species if we are to be better able to understand the population dynamics of these stocks and be effective in their management. In the meantime, the Danish wing survey represents a unique time series of reproductive success for many common migratory duck species and must be maintained and further exploited.