Change in Southern Congressional Elections, 2004-2008

Abstract

This study examines change in southern congressional elections from 2004 to 2008 through a longitudinal analysis of district-level data. We hypothesize that change in the district congressional vote division will be influenced by: (a) change in the presidential vote in the district; and (b) change in the campaign efforts of the two parties. These are the hypotheses of central interest in this study. We also hypothesize that change in the congressional vote will be affected by: (c) the difference between the presidential and congressional vote in the district in 2004; and (d) change in the incumbency status of the two parties in the district. However, these hypotheses are of secondary interest; the variables are included primarily to make our models complete. Our findings show that change in the presidential vote had a substantial increase on the congressional vote. Change in the Democratic campaign effort also had an effect, but it was smaller than the effect of the presidential vote change. Change in the Republican campaign effort did not have a significant effect, but we urge caution in interpreting this result.