Change detection of storm runoff and sediment yield using hydrologic models following wildfire in a coastal redwood forest, California

Abstract

This study attempted to detect changes in stormflow volumes, peakflows, and sediment loads using hydrologic models within the context of an uncertainty assessment following wildfire. In 2009, after 8 years of study, the Lockheed Fire burned the treatment and control watersheds of a paired watershed study in coastal California, USA, eliminating the ability to continue a paired watershed before–after control–intervention (BACI) study design. An alternative analysis was used to detect stormflow and sediment load changes due to the wildfire by comparing measured posttreatment stormflow and sediment load with simulated predisturbance responses predicted with the hydrologic models HBV-EC and DHSVM. High natural variability of stormflow and sediment measurements compounded with uncertainty associated with the hydrologic models and climate suggest that only large changes can be detected. The fire and subsequent salvage harvest created an approximately 9%–12% reduction in forest overstory canopy and a 70%–90% consumption of understory vegetation. No discernible changes in slopes of regression lines were detected between predisturbance and postfire stormflow volumes, peakflows, or sediment loads. No changes were detected in stormflow volume, peakflow, or sediment loads comparing pre- and post-fire vegetation inputs to the hydrologic model DHSVM. The lack of detected change in streamflow to accelerate stream channel erosion combined with low to moderate fire severity adjacent to stream channels most likely were the reasons for no detected postfire change to sediment loads.