Central European foreign exchange markets: a cross-spectral analysis of the 2007 financial crisis

Abstract

This article investigates co-movements between currency markets of Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and the Euro in the year following the drying up of money markets in August 2007. The article shows that assessing the degree of foreign currency co-movement by correlation can lead to concluding, erroneously, that financial contagion has not occurred. Using cross-spectral methods, the article shows that defining contagion as changes in the structure of co-movements of asset prices encompasses more of the complex nature of exchange rate dynamics. What is shown is that, following August 2007, there is increase in the intensity of co-movements, but non-linearly. Focusing on the activities of a mix of banks and currency managers, it is suggested that changes in the structure of currency interaction present an unfavourable view of the contagion experienced by at least three of these currencies.