CCMI-1 모형에서의 동아시아 전량오존 및 대류권오존 평가

Abstract

We assess Total Column Ozone (TCO) and Tropospheric Ozone (TRO) reproduced by the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative phase 1 (CCMI-1) project using ground-based observations and reanalysis datasets from 2003 to 2010 for East Asia. Five models, CESM1-WACCM, CESM1-CAM4Chem, HadGEM3-ES, MRI-CGCM3, and GEOSCCM, are evaluated. The multi-model mean of the five models reproduces a spatial distribution and seasonal cycle of TCO similar to the observation and reanalysis results. CCMI-1 models present a relative bias of TCO in the range of -4.22 to 0.47% against the observation data. Contrary to TCO, TRO shows a comparatively large inter-model spread in spatial pattern and seasonality. Indeed, the relative bias of TRO from the models is from -8.37 to 13.71% compared to the observation data. While CESM1-CAM4Chem and MRI-ESM1r1 produce reasonable spatial and temporal variability of TCO and TRO, HadGEM3-ES and GEOSCCM exhibit a bias with substantially lower and higher TRO in most seasons, respectively. Long-term trends in TCO and TRO are not significant in either reanalysis or CCMI models. These results suggest that TCO and TRO reproduction from CCMI-1 models requires caution and further evaluation, particularly for regional analysis.