Causality between global economic policy uncertainty and tourism in fragile five countries: a three-dimensional wavelet approach

Abstract

ABSTRACT This work aims to examine the relationship between global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) and tourism activities in the fragile five (F5) countries, namely, Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey using three-dimensional wavelet transforms context structures and the annual data during the period of 1997–2018. This innovative technique allows the decomposition of time-series at different time frequencies. In this work, the researchers used three-dimensional continuous wavelets based on Granger causality analysis to investigate the relationship between GEPU and tourism. The finding shows that the relationship generally changes over time, displaying low to high frequency cycles. Moreover, the timing and frequency change when GEPU co-moves with tourism. Accordingly, it can be recommended that the government increase and promote tourism demand and further provide and nurture the expansion of tourism supply.