Causal analysis of trade loss from pathogens: A global study of foot and mouth disease impacts on meat exports

T he three papers presented in this session on the Implications from Studies of Foot and Mouth illustrate the interdependence of economics and livestock-disease control and the importance of good quality, integrated economic and epidemiological information to support decision and policy making. The paper by Randolph, Morrison, and Poulton extends the traditional evaluation of the benefits and costs of disease-control programs to include poverty-alleviation objectives. A key feature of the analysis is the integration of the economic framework with a stochastic epidemiological model to allow simulating future Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) outbreaks. Uncertainty is important in simulating disease outbreaks as the efficacy of control measures and the course of any particular epidemic can vary greatly. Epidemiological analyses frequently incorporate stochastic elements to address these and other uncertainties. Incorporating these disease-related uncertainties into economic analysis is a methodological area deserving of exploration. The paper by Rich, Winter-Nelson, and Brozovik, also illustrates the variance in the efficacy of control measures. The focus in this analysis is on spatial spillovers of FMD virus and the divergent behavior of neighbors in disease control efforts.

Livestock production is under scrutiny for its impact on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Animal disease outbreaks will have economic effects on producers and the indirect cost of an animal disease outbreak is the result of shifts in consumption across commodities. This shift in demand for meat products will also positively or negatively affect carbon emissions. We explore the indirect costs and subsequent carbon impact of four potential exotic disease outbreaks, namely African swine fever, sheep pox, bluetongue, and foot and mouth disease. The indirect costs are quantified under different severities of outbreak using a vector error correction model and by estimating the changes in revenues of livestock and feed markets. By associating subsequent consumption switches with emission factors, we quantify the hidden carbon impact of these livestock disease outbreaks. The indirect costs vary based on severity and type of disease outbreak. Similarly, the net reduction in supply and subsequent consumption impacts result in averting between 0.005 and 0.67 million tonnes of CO2 eq. for these sectors. A foot and mouth disease outbreak has the highest indirect costs and largest reduction in GHG emissions as it decreases the production of cattle as consumers switch to lower emitting meat commodities. Conversely, African swine fever has the smallest reduction in GHG emissions, reflecting the more industrialised nature of pig farming. Our modelling approach opens a provocative debate around how compensation to producers supports restocking and how this relates to commitments to net zero farming. Overall, an exotic disease outbreak may trigger an opportunity to switch to lower emitting breeds or species if a more holistic, joined up approach were taken by Government.

Objective Analyzing epidemiological characteristics and etiology of hand, foot and mouth disease outbreaks from 2011 to 2012 in Shenzhen to provide the basis for prevention and control of hand, foot and mouth disease. Methods The data about epidemiology of hand, foot and mouth disease outbreaks was analyzed and Viral RNA was used for enterovirus type 71 (EV71), coxsackie virus type A16(CA16) and Pan-enterovirus (PE) detection by real-time RT-PCR. Results A total of 501 specimens from 160 hand, foot and mouth disease outbreaks were collected and detected between 2011 and 2012. EV71 was responsible for 36 outbreaks (22.50%), CA16 was responsible for 52 outbreaks (32.50%) and other enteroviruses were responsible for 40 outbreaks (25%). 84 outbreaks (52.50%) occurred in Nanshan District in Shenzhen and 36 outbreaks (22.50%) occurred in Luohu District in Shenzhen. Outbreaks occurred throughout the year except August between 2011 and 2012.There were two peak periods from March to July and September to November, respectively. The positive rates of male and female are 72.3%and 73.4%, respectively. Conclusion There was variation in hand, foot and mouth disease outbreaks in different regions and months.There was no significant difference between gender.CA16 was the main causative agent of hand, foot and mouth disease in 2011, while non-EV71and non-CA16 human enterovirus were main pathogens of hand, foot and mouth disease outbreaks in 2012. Key words: Hand foot and mouth disease; Clustering in outbreak; Enterovirus type 71(EV71); Coxsackievirus A16(CA16)

Aim:Disease outbreaks increase the cost of animal production; reduce milk and beef yield, cattle sales, farmers’ incomes, and enterprise profitability. The study assessed the economic effects of foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks along the cattle marketing chain in selected study districts in Uganda.Materials and Methods:The study combined qualitative and quantitative study designs. Respondents were selected proportionally using simple random sampling from the sampling frame comprising of 224, 173, 291, and 185 farmers for Nakasongola, Nakaseke, Isingiro, and Rakai, respectively. Key informants were selected purposively. Data analysis combined descriptive, modeling, and regression analysis. Data on the socio-economic characteristics and how they influenced FMD outbreaks, cattle markets revenue losses, and the economic cost of the outbreaks were analyzed using descriptive measures including percentages, means, and frequencies.Results:Farmers with small and medium herds incurred higher control costs, whereas large herds experienced the highest milk losses. Total income earned by the actors per month at the processing level reduced by 23%. In Isingiro, bulls and cows were salvage sold at 83% and 88% less market value, i.e., a loss of $196.1 and $1,552.9 in small and medium herds, respectively.Conclusion:All actors along the cattle marketing chain incur losses during FMD outbreaks, but smallholder farmers are most affected. Control and prevention of FMD should remain the responsibility of the government if Uganda is to achieve a disease-free status that is a prerequisite for free movement and operation of cattle markets throughout the year which will boost cattle marketing.

The size of the cost to the Australian beef industry of a potential loss of major beef export markets following an outbreak of foot and mouth disease (FMD) in Australia is important in determining appropriate precautions. The size of this cost is evaluated with a dynamic bioeconomic model of Australian beef production, consumption and export trade. The model developed by ABARE represents forward-looking competitive behaviour of beef producers and traders on domestic and export markets based on perfect foresight. The model enables estimation of the cost due to a FMD outbreak under various scenarios regarding the duration of market closure and affected zones.

Predictive models have been used extensively to assess the likely effectiveness of vaccination policies as part of control measures in the event of a foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreak. However, the availability of vaccine stocks and the impact of vaccine availability on disease control strategies represent a key uncertainty when assessing potential control strategies. Using an epidemiological, spatially explicit, simulation model in combination with a direct cost calculator, we assessed how vaccine availability constraints may affect the economic benefit of a “vaccination-to-live” strategy during a FMD outbreak in Scotland, when implemented alongside culling of infected premises and dangerous contacts. We investigated the impact of vaccine stock size and restocking delays on epidemiological and economic outcomes. We also assessed delays in the initial decision to vaccinate, maximum daily vaccination capacity, and vaccine efficacy. For scenarios with conditions conducive to large outbreaks, all vaccination strategies perform better than the strategy where only culling is implemented. A stock of 200,000 doses, enough to vaccinate 12% of the Scottish cattle population, would be sufficient to maximize the relative benefits of vaccination, both epidemiologically and economically. However, this generates a wider variation in economic cost than if vaccination is not implemented, making outcomes harder to predict. The probability of direct costs exceeding £500 million is reduced when vaccination is used and is steadily reduced further as the size of initial vaccine stock increases. If only a suboptimal quantity of vaccine doses is initially available (100,000 doses), restocking delays of more than 2 weeks rapidly increase the cost of controlling outbreaks. Impacts of low vaccine availability or restocking delays are particularly aggravated by delays in the initial decision to vaccinate, or low vaccine efficacy. Our findings confirm that implementing an emergency vaccination-to-live strategy in addition to the conventional stamping out strategy is economically beneficial in scenarios with conditions conducive to large FMD outbreaks in Scotland. However, the size of the initial vaccine stock available at the start of the outbreak and the interplay with other factors, such as vaccine efficacy and delays in restocking or implementing vaccination, should be considered in making decisions about optimal control strategies for FMD outbreaks.

Modeling the impact of vaccination control strategies on a foot and mouth disease outbreak in the Central United States

Aim: In 2022, there was a severe hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) outbreak in India. This study focuses on the identification and molecular characterization of the causative agent. Methods: 51 suspected HFMD patients were examined. Viral RNA from HFMD-positive patients' vesicular extracts were sequenced. Phylogenetic analysis was carried out for genotype and mutation identification in current outbreak strains. Results: Phylogenetic analysis revealed a novel Indian clade of CVA16 belonging to genotype B1c. Two consistent mutations, R41H in the VP3 protein and G492T in the conserved 5′-UTR region, were found only in novel clade strains. Conclusion: The present study highlights the possibility and significance of the aforementioned mutations in increasing the ability of CVA16 to spread among adults.

The paper focuses on two aspects of the 2001 foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in Scotland that have been largely ignored: first, business managers perceptions of the impact of FMD during and immediately after the outbreak; and second, reactions to the outbreak in terms of action taken by businesses and advice sought. A panel survey of non-farm businesses conducted in April, June and September of 2001 is analysed to shed light on these issues. We find that even at the time, the vast majority of businesses did not report any real impact, although businesses in rural areas and in the tourism industry were more likely to feel some impact - either positive or negative. We show that business managers appeared to favour private sources of advice, although some public sources were found to be very useful, and that some actions, such as increased advertising in tourism businesses, could be more effective than others, such as making redundancies. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of the findings for contingency planning in the event of future FMD outbreaks.

In order to discover the causes of a coxsackievirus B4 (CV-B4)-associated hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) outbreak and to study the evolutionary characteristics of the virus, we sequenced isolates obtained during an outbreak for comparative analysis with previously sequenced strains. Phylogenetic and evolutionary dynamics analysis was performed to examine the genetic characteristics of CV-B4 in China and worldwide. Phylogenetic analysis showed that CV-B4 originated from a common ancestor in Shandong. CV-B4 strains isolated worldwide could be classified into genotypes A-E based on the sequence of the VP1 region. All CV-B4 strains in China belonged to genotype E. The global population diversity of CV-B4 fluctuated substantially over time, and CV-B4 isolated in China accounted for a significant increase in the diversity of CV-B4. The average nucleotide substitution rate in VP1 of Chinese CV-B4 (5.20 × 10-3 substitutions/site/year) was slightly higher than that of global CV-B4 (4.82 × 10-3 substitutions/site/year). This study is the first to investigate the evolutionary dynamics of CV-B4 and its association with an HFMD outbreak. These findings explain both the 2011 outbreak and the global increase in CV-B4 diversity. In addition to improving our understanding of a major outbreak, these findings provide a basis for the development of surveillance strategies.

Background:In China, hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) outbreaks have become an important issue recent years. We analyzed the epidemiological characteristics of HFMD outbreaks in Qingdao during 2009–2018, and provided evidences for prevention and control of the disease.Methods:Data were analyzed by descriptive analysis and correlation analysis, and throat swabs were detected for enterovirus RNA using RT-PCR.Results:Overall, 116 HFMD outbreaks were reported in Qingdao during 2009–2018, with the epidemic of the outbreaks exhibiting a decreasing tendency. The characteristics of outbreaks presented two patterns, including two-peak pattern and rural area to urban-rural fringe area to urban areas pattern. Male patients were predominant in these outbreaks. The location of the outbreaks changed from nursery to community. Non-EV71/CA16 enteroviruses were gradually becoming predominant enteroviruses serotypes. The durations of outbreaks were positively correlated with response times and the number of cases.Conclusion:The epidemiological characteristics analysis of HFMD outbreaks could provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control the disease. Reporting and handling promptly are the keys to control epidemic outbreaks of HFMD.

Appraisal of foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks in Ilesha baruba LGA, Kwara state in Nigeria was conducted to establish the knowledge, attitude and management control system practiced by the Fulani herdsmen. Participatory appraisal approach using designed questions in an open ended interview with the herdsmen during outbreak investigation in December, 2010, January, February, and March, 2011 was employed. Overall Morbidity, Mortality and Case fatality rates of 19.82%, 0.92% and 4.63% respectively was recorded in fifteen outbreaks investigated. Semi nomadic husbandry management system characterized by no history of FMD vaccination was mostly practiced in the affected herds. Yakana (white Fulani) and Bokoloji breeds were the most affected manifesting with very severe forms of clinical signs. Common source of water points predisposed these in-contact cattle with other herds, sheep, goats and donkeys but not wildlife. Response of the Fulani herdsmen showed all can recognize FMD and that all ages, sex, breeds of cattle could be affected by the disease expect donkeys. No particular season was associated with FMD occurrence. It was also gathered that some herdsmen use local herbs and drug medication. Inadequate veterinary service which compels them to engage a few common service providers was emphasized by the herdsmen. Finally, non treatable cattle are usually sold to butchers for human consumption at a reduce market value as death of affected cattle was usually avoided. All responses were independent and statistically significant by chi square (P

BackgroundIn China, a rapid expansion of Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) outbreaks has occurred since 2004 and HFMD has become an important issue for China. However, people are still only concerned with human enterovirus 71(HEV-71) and coxsackie virus A16 (CV-A16). Much of what is known about the other enterovirus infections relies on fractional evidence and old epidemic data, with little knowledge concerning their distribution. To alert potential threatens of the other enteroviruses, our study genetically characterized specimens from different regions of China and yielded novel information concerning the circulating and phylogenetic characteristics of enteroviral strains from HFMD cases.FindingsA total of 301 clinical throat swabs were randomly obtained from patients suffering from HFMD from the southern, northern and central regions of China during outbreaks in 2009. 266 of 301 (88.4%) HFMD cases were found positive for HEV and seven genotypes, HEV-71, CV-A16, -B5, -A4, -A6, -A10, and -A12, were detected.ConclusionsThe HFMD pathogen compositions in the different regions of China were significantly different. HFMD epidemics might persist for a long time in China due to the multiple pathogen compositions, the enteroviral characteristic of recombination and co-infection, the ever-increasing travel and migration and the deficiency of effective vaccine. Our study deserves the attention on HFMD control and vaccine development.

Endemic Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) outbreaks are a threat to animal husbandry, especially beef cattle in Indonesia. As a response to the emergence of the outbreak, appropriate management policies are needed to minimize losses, considering that the majority of animal husbandry in Indonesia is small businesses. This study aimed to find out the government’s policy response in handling FMD in Indonesia since it was first discovered (28 April 2022) in Gresik, East Java to early 2023. This research method uses a qualitative method with a case study approach sourced from government data in the form of publications, reports, statutory policies, statistics, and regulatory literature studies issued by the government in response to the outbreak. The results of the research show that the government implemented various policies to control FMD outbreaks starting from the pre-crisis evaluation stage with the existence of Law Number 41 of 2014 and Law Number 21 of 2019 and the derivative regulations under them. In the second phase, pre-crisis preparedness, the government responds to outbreaks in several districts in East Java and Aceh to designate them as FMD pandemic areas. In the third stage, crisis response through organizational coordination is carried out with the cooperation of Pentahelix from various sectors and layers of society in handling FMD. Finally, after recovery and investigation, the government realized the importance of vaccination and outreach, especially to smallholder farmers in Indonesia.

Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease, which affects all cloven-hoofed domestic animals.It is one of the most economically important viral diseases listed as notifable trans-boundary animal diseases.FMD has a detrimental effect on the agricultural economies of most countries worldwide.A retrospective study was applied to shows FMD outbreaks by animals, place and time in West Omo Zone from 2017 to 2022.The data of the FMD outbreaks were collected from regional veterinary laboratory and zone agricultural department from the DOVAR II report.The data was analyzed by tables and graphs by using pivot table.During this study period within six years a total of 10 outbreaks, 11,347 cases and 43 deaths were recorded.Hence, the recorded data indicated that FMD outbreak cases are increasing.The highest case 11,240(99.05%)occur in 2022 year and the lowest case 107(0.94%) in 2019, but in 2017, 2018, 2020, 2021 within four years no FMD outbreaks.This absence of outbreak might be a weak reporting system and knowledge gaps from animal health workers.The spatial distribution of FMD is widespread throughout the west omo zone, particularly in all districts except suri.The result indicated that 40%, 30%, 20%, and 10% of outbreaks were reported from Bero, Meenit shasha, Meenit golidiya and Maji district respectively.The Vaccination coverage was very low and only 2,598 doses of prophylaxis vaccine were given within 6 years.Generally supplying adequate doses of vaccine, control risk factor and strong animal disease surveillance system is used to control and prevent the FMD disease.