Abstract
The Clinton administration's announcement on 5 January 1999 of the limited relaxation of America's economic embargo against Cuba has, if anything, only increased Cuban defiance. President Fidel Castro's government correctly perceived this change to be not an attempt at détente, but a shift towards a different strategy for trying to undermine communist power through economic and social contacts. However, the US approach seems unlikely to have much success, and communist rule appears firm. Cuba has to some degree already opened up its economy – especially to tourism – and has attracted significant investment from countries other than the US. The US-based Cuban émigré leadership's anti-communist rhetoric and unconcealed ambition for a leading role in a post-communist Cuba contributes to the communists' determination to maintain power. When change does occur after Castro's death, the role of the émigré élite and of Washington may be dangerous, and could cause a strong anti-US backlash on the island.
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